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Below normal precipitation, unseasonal warmth matter of concern, say agri experts

“Jehlum is flowing at an all time lowest which is a matter of concern,” said Faizan, adding that spring in river Lidder and other springs in Pahalgam have almost run dry
12:14 AM Feb 02, 2025 IST | Saqib Maik
below normal precipitation  unseasonal warmth matter of concern  say agri experts
Below normal precipitation, unseasonal warmth matter of concern, say agri experts
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Srinagar, Feb 1: From not repeating the trend of 2018 and 2019, when Kashmir witnessed snowfall during November to now having day temperatures recorded as high as 12-13 degrees Celsius during “Chillai Kalan”, the harshest winter period in Kashmir , this season has set some unique trends. Interestingly, farmers, especially apple growers are hopeful for a good harvest and keeping fingers crossed for more rainfall in days to come. Weather analysts and agricultural experts whom Greater Kashmir contacted, have sounded caution over less rainfall.

Speaking with Greater Kashmir, Independent weather forecaster, Faizan Arif said Jammu and Kashmir recorded around 90 per cent rainfall deficit in the month of January. For the last five winters, Kashmir Valley has recorded below normal precipitation, which has led to glacier shrinkage at an unprecedented level.

“Jhelum is flowing at an all time lowest which is a matter of concern,” said Faizan, adding that spring in river Lidder and other springs in Pahalgam have almost run dry.

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Average day time temperature in Srinagar was 9.2 degrees Celsius but the normal maximum temperature in Srinagar should be 7.1 degrees Celsius. In terms of minimum temperatures, the Valley saw below normal temperatures.

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The seasonal average for Srinagar should ideally be minus 1.9 degrees Celsius but minus 2.4 degrees Celsius was recorded.

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Compared to previous winter seasons, Kashmir Valley recorded less foggy weather conditions this season. As per weather forecasters, the phenomenon of foggy weather conditions is a complex issue to study. “To ascertain the real facts behind less or more fog is a matter of research,” said Faizan.

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Dr Aflaq Hamid, Associate Professor ( Plant Pathology) SKUAST-K, said the warmer day temperatures seen during winter can cause apple crop to not meet the chilling requirement

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“Incase of apples, the chilling factor is an important requirement. On an average 1200 hours of chilling is needed for apple cultivation which means the apple crop should be exposed to below 7 degrees for this much time. Higher temperature leads to bud sprout which poses a threat incase spring season beginning with March has low temperatures which in result provides less opportunity for a good harvest,” said Dr Hamid. He said unseasonal warmth can lead to change in disease intensity in crops, adding that this trend usually has an adverse impact on crop production.

“The climate change can have an increasing risk of different diseases for plants in which different pathogens will thrive in higher temperatures,” said Dr Hamid.

Other impact areas that unseasonal warmth can cause includes early bud break and frost risk. It may cause reduced fruit quality and an increased overwintering of pathogens. Higher pest pressure and greater fungal growth are also a potential threat posed by warm day temperatures during winters.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above normal day and night temperatures for the month of February in Jammu and Kashmir. As per the IMD forecast, Kashmir Valley will receive near normal rainfall while the Jammu region may see below normal rainfall in February this year.