Baramulla prepares for a political storm

Baramulla, Sep 28: The high-stake Baramulla assembly constituency is gearing up for the electoral battle during phase III of the assembly polls on October 1.

As many as 25 candidates including 15 independents are in the fray for the constituency.

As the date nears, all the candidates have intensified their election campaign which will be officially closed on September 29. The Awami Ittehad backed independent candidates Shoaib Nabi Lone and Javid Hassan Baig of the National Conference (NC) are considered to be in the close contest.

While the NC cadre and its intensified election campaign are favouring Baig’s emergence, the supporters of AIP are rekindling a ray of hope for Shoaib Lone in the elections.

The race between these two contestants besides the presence of other prominent candidates including independents makes Baramulla one of the most closely watched contests in north Kashmir's electoral landscape.

Moreover, the entry of former deputy chief minister Muzaffar Hussain Baig in the election fray from the constituency has added a new twist to the electoral battle.

The analysts predict that his entry into the fray would damage his nephew Javid Baig while some believe that his campaigning will fetch him only his share.

Muzaffar Baig and Javid Baig have a bastion in the Kandi area of Baramulla constituency.

Baramulla has a registered electorate of 1,26,321, including 63,338 males, 62,978 females and five transgender.

The number is the highest among the seven assembly constituencies of the district.

To accommodate this large electorate, the district election authorities have designated 158 polling stations spread across 127 locations, making it the largest polling segment in the district.

With 25 candidates vying for the seat, political analysts predict a high-voltage contest while the spotlight remains on Shoaib Nabi Lone and Javid Hassan Baig.

Shoaib Nabi Lone, now a familiar face in north Kashmir's political field, first won the Sangrama assembly seat in 2005 as an independent candidate.

Lone, whose father Ghulam Nabi Lone was a former education minister with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), secured a decisive victory over Javid Baig in the 2005 elections.

Back then, Lone won by a margin of 6400 votes, securing 18,700 votes compared to Baig’s 12,300.

Lone’s political journey has been marked by significant alliances and shifts.

Initially affiliated with the Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), Lone later aligned with jailed Baramulla Member of Parliament Engineer Rashid and was one of the star campaigners during parliamentary polls for Baramulla.

Javid Baig secured the Baramulla assembly seat on the PDP ticket with 14,418 votes, defeating his NC opponent Ghulam Hassan Rahi by a margin of 7017 votes in 2014.

Despite a brief rebellion against the PDP in 2018, Baig rejoined the party only to face expulsion in 2019 following the revocation of J&K’s special status.

Baig’s political affiliations shifted again in 2020 when he joined the Apni Party.

However, his association with the Apni Party was short-lived, as he was expelled in January 2024 over allegations of “anti-party activities”.

In March 2024, Baig found a new home with the NC, securing the party’s ticket to contest the Baramulla seat.

Adding another layer of complexity to this high-stakes electoral battle is the presence of veteran politician Muzaffar Baig. A two-time MLA and former deputy chief Minister, Muzaffar Baig is contesting as an independent candidate.

His deep-rooted influence in the constituency, coupled with his long standing political legacy, could sway the election’s outcome.

However Both Shoaib Lone and Javid Hassan Baig are likely to feel the impact of Muzaffar Baig's involvement, as he continues to command respect among voters, particularly the elders.

Apart from Shoaib Lone and Javid Baig, the Baramulla constituency has attracted several other candidates which include Muhammad Rafique Rather of PDP, Mir Iqbal Ahmad of Congress, and independents like Touseef Raina, Nighat Mir, and Mir Musaib.

While the focus remains on the Lone-Baig contest, the independent candidates can influence the elections by distributing votes in unexpected ways.