‘Bangladesh’s changing alliances are disturbing’
New Delhi, Feb 25: Bangladesh’s growing ties with Pakistan and China are raising concerns in India, signalling a potential shift in South Asia’s political landscape. Bangladesh has resumed direct trade with Pakistan for the first time since its independence in 1971. At the same time, Dhaka is strengthening its relationship with Beijing as a 22-member Bangladeshi delegation visits China for high-level talks.
A recent shipment of 50,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan’s Port Qasim to Bangladesh marks a significant step in reviving trade relations. This is the first time a Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) vessel is docking at a Bangladeshi port.
The shift comes after major political changes in Bangladesh. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus now leads an interim government after protests led to the removal of Sheikh Hasina. Hasina, who was a strong ally of India, kept Pakistan at arm’s length for 15 years. In contrast, Yunus is open to engagement with Islamabad, as seen in his recent meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Economic factors play a role in this shift. Bangladesh had been buying rice from Vietnam at $474.25 per tonne but opted for Pakistan’s white rice at a higher price of $499 per tonne.
Beyond trade, security cooperation between the two countries is growing. Last month, a delegation from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) visited Bangladesh, sparking speculation about military collaboration. Reports suggest that Bangladesh is considering buying JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, developed by Pakistan and China, as part of its ‘Forces Goal 2030’ modernisation plan.
Trade between the two countries has now exceeded $1 billion, increasing by 27% between August and December 2024. A recent agreement between the top trade bodies of both nations aims to quadruple trade within a year. Meanwhile, cultural ties are also strengthening. Medi reports suggest that Pakistani qawwali singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan performed to packed audiences in Dhaka, reflecting improved people-to-people connections.
22-member Bangladesh delegation currently visiting Beijing
Bangladesh is also deepening its engagement with China. The 22-member delegation currently visiting Beijing includes political leaders, civil society activists, academics, and journalists, highlighting China’s growing influence in Dhaka.
As India’s influence weakens, China appears ready to step in. China’s interest in Bangladesh has increased following Hasina’s exile to India. The delegation to China includes members of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has historically been more favourable towards Beijing than the Awami League. The visit follows a meeting between Bangladesh’s foreign policy advisor, Touhid Hossain, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in January.
China is already Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching around $24 billion, mostly consisting of Chinese exports. Bangladesh also depends heavily on China for military supplies, with over 70% of its weapons coming from Beijing.
India’s interaction with Bangladesh’s interim government has been limited. However, political observers suggest that India is keeping an eye on the developments in Bangladesh with much patience and remains concerned about Bangladesh’s shifting alliances. With Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Nepal already caught in the geopolitical contest between India and China, Bangladesh’s changing stance adds another challenge for New Delhi.
