Bangladesh at Crossroads
Bangladesh, in recent weeks, has found itself at the centre of diplomatic and military manoeuvring, with several regional and global powers keeping a close watch and trying to make inroads where the political vacuum continues leading to more lawlessness and impulsiveness. Last week’s visit by a top army U.S. General to Bangladesh has raised eyebrows. There are several political and military speculations about the country’s future direction or trajectory as the US General had several meetings in Bangladesh for at least two days. In addition, immediately, Bangladesh CEO Muhammad Yunus left for China on a four-day visit, raising many more questions.
However, internally, Bangladesh’s interim government is somewhat rocking and faces challenges as mismanagement of the country’s affairs and inflation continue to grow. Equally, law and order continue to deteriorate. Cautious whispers of Sheikh Hasina’s return to power are growing louder, even though the scare of talking about their party continues in public for fear of retaliation.
In all these cycles of happenings, neighbouring India, with which Bangladesh shares a boundary of 4,096 km, is sitting well on the fence observing, and has adopted a cautious stance. Meanwhile, Pakistan and China continue to deepen their engagement with Dhaka, taking advantage of the vacuum, space available in the absence of any political continuity.
Bangladesh, however, continues to accuse New Delhi of providing asylum to Sheikh Hasina and some other members of the Awami League. Some even fear that Hasina, sitting in the neighbouring state, may be planning something big. However, in all this chatter and speculation, India has maintained a diplomatic silence, wishing well for Bangladesh amid a measured approach. On top of it, despite India’s sour relations with Bangladesh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a letter to caretaker President Muhammad Yunus on Bangladesh’s Independence Day, The Prime Minister message refers to the Liberation War, reminding the shared history between the two nations and also reinforcing the importance of bilateral relations between the two countries. Bangladesh celebrated its 53rd Independence Day on March 26. Modi’s words did not speak of anything negative or political but highlighted India’s commitment to stability and peace in the region. President Droupadi Murmu also extended greetings to Bangladesh, reiterating the long-standing ties between the two countries. The underlying message perhaps should reach the top ruling echelons that India wants to be an unwavering partner and will not interfere in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. India meanwhile sent huge consignments of parboiled rice from India as a part of a larger agreement between the two nations, which signifies that India is keen to maintain its economic influence in Bangladesh amid the current uncertainty.
However, many political observers are eager to know more details on the recent two-day visit of Pacific Deputy Commanding General Lt Gen Joel P. Vowell’s two-day visit to Bangladesh which has raised eyebrows in diplomatic circles. The US embassy in Dhaka already has enough diplomats to deal with the situation, even though it is understandable that the Myanmar and Rohingya issue continues to remain as a concern for Bangladesh and US presence in Myanmar is always of much interest.
This visit has already highlighted the US’s focus on strengthening military cooperation with Dhaka, particularly in the wake of growing tensions on Bangladesh’s border with Myanmar. Bangladesh newspapers reported that Gen Vowell and Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman’s discussions revolved around military interoperability, security cooperation, and potential acquisitions of U.S. manufactured military equipment. This visit also coincides with growing concerns over extremism in Bangladesh, with General Zaman, as reported by a section of the media, cautioning against possible terrorist attacks in the country. The U.S. has also expressed concern over rising extremism in Bangladesh.
China and Pakistan’s increasing interest and presence
Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus on March 28. Bangladesh and China signed eight agreements. After the meeting, both countries released a statement saying that Bangladesh is open to working with China to develop the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone (CEIZ) in Chattogram. The statement also welcomed China’s help in modernising Mongla Port and improving the Teesta River under the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP). Muhammad Yunus was on a four-day visit to China, where he attended the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan.
He arrived in Beijing on March 27 and was welcomed by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong. During his visit, Yunus asked China to lower interest rates on its loans to Bangladesh from 3% to 1-2% and to waive additional fees on Chinese-funded projects. He also met with China’s Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang and sought further Chinese support for development projects. China, which is already present vastly in Bangladesh, is not only expanding its investments in infrastructure and energy projects but also strengthening military ties. China’s strategic interest in Bangladesh is also tied to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and there are reports that Bangladesh may be looking to increase military cooperation with Beijing. Meanwhile, Pakistan is working to improve its diplomatic relationship with Bangladesh, which has been strained since the 1971 war.
Trade between the two countries has resumed after decades, and there have been joint military leadership meetings and visits by Pakistani military and intelligence officials to Bangladesh. The biggest threat in Bangladesh in the absence of any accountability is the rise of radical influences. Several organisations funded by Arab countries are trying to expand their presence in a society that has traditionally been more tolerant. The situation is becoming more suitable for radicals to grow as past experience shows that anywhere globally, unstable political climate suits them to cultivate their ideology.
Rising Speculation of Military Takeover
Whispers of a potential military intervention have gained traction. Even though the Bangladesh army has dismissed such reports, caretaker CEO Yunus also denied it. In a statement, he said, “As you know, since the interim government took office, there has been a festival of rumours in the media and social media. In order to destabilise the country, attempts are being made to mislead the people by spreading false information one after another.” But several reports have surfaced about emergency meetings among top-ranking military officials in Dhaka, with discussions centred on the possibility of stepping in to stabilise the situation.
Last month, the media widely covered the frustration of General Zaman. In one of the speeches, General Zaman expressed frustration over the political deadlock and law-and-order situation in Bangladesh. The majority of the analysts were then of the opinion that a potential military role in the near future in administering the country cannot be ruled out. It has happened in the past, both coup and military rule. At the same time, student-led protests and allegations against the interim government continue to increase. Some of the opposition leaders went to the extent of accusing the army chief of conspiring with President Mohammed Shahabuddin to form a new government. Only time will tell how it is shaping up.
Violence Against Women and Lawlessness
Another worry of the common citizen of Bangladesh is the worsening security and law and order situation that has had a devastating impact on women. Reports of violent attacks, including sexual violence, have increased in recent months. There were several anti-establishment protests by the women demanding safety and law and order. Women who participated in protests against the government or voiced opposition to political developments have faced threats, harassment, and, in some cases, fatal attacks. The recent rape and murder case shocked the nation and have drawn widespread condemnation from international human rights organisations. Yet, local law enforcement has done little to bring the perpetrators to justice. In response, many gated communities have begun patrolling their own neighbourhoods, as the absence of effective law and order has encouraged small criminal gangs operating with impunity. Reports of armed gangs roaming freely, intimidating civilians, and engaging in violent crimes continues adding another layer of crisis to an already volatile situation.
Bangladesh is at a crossroads. The presence of a deadly cocktail of political instability, military uncertainty, and increasing foreign influence in Bangladesh presently makes the situation in the country not only complex but worrisome. If such lawlessness continues, in the coming months, the country may suffer further, both politically and economically. Even though, the interim government under Muhammad Yunus faces mounting criticism as its legitimacy is being questioned by several political activists and political parties who want immediate elections to grab the power in the absence of Sheikh Hasina and her political party.
India, meanwhile, continues to keep an eye on the situation in the neighbouring country with a caveat of maintaining its strategy of cautious engagement, having patience to wait in the backyard, and balancing its historical ties with Bangladesh while ensuring stability. The U.S. is taking a more active role in military cooperation, while China and Pakistan seek to leverage the political vacuum to their advantage. It is likely that the military in the long run is going to play a big role in determining Bangladesh’s political direction. Whether the nation moves towards political reconciliation or sees a more forceful intervention from the military remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Bangladesh is once again in the global spotlight, and the decisions made in the coming months will shape its future for years to come.
Author is National Editor,
Greater Kashmir
