Bangladesh: A Nation on the Edge
Bangladesh is experiencing one of the most dangerous periods in its modern history, with its stability hanging in the balance. Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman recently issued a stark warning, saying, “If you can’t move beyond your differences and continue meddling and fighting among yourselves, the independence and integrity of the country will be at risk — I warn you,” said General Waker-uz-Zaman, without singling out any group by name.
At least one person was killed and several others injured after a group of attackers targeted a Bangladesh Air Force installation in Cox’s Bazar last Monday. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the sudden assault near the Samiti Para area led to a confrontation, prompting Air Force personnel to open fire. The attack resulted in the death of one individual and injuries to at least six others.
“Since stakeholders are busy accusing each other, miscreants find the situation favourable. They believe they can get away with anything,” the army chief warned at an army memorial event. His statement speaks about the frustration amongst the Bangladesh army as well as the deepening political crisis that allows in the wrinkles of the administration’s increasing crime in the name of political revenge that has led to a great fear amongst the residents, who are tight-lipped, scared, or else they will be dubbed as supporters of Awami League and damaged.
The removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina created a power vacuum that the interim government has struggled to fill. Political factions continue to clash, criminal activity is on the rise, and violence spreads unchecked. Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka and other major towns have become increasingly unsafe.
Operation Devil Hunt
The breakdown of law and order has affected everyday life in Bangladesh. Armed robberies, violent attacks, and brutal killings have become common. Bangladesh newspapers are increasingly reporting on cases of mugging, murder, and sexual violence, leaving the population in a state of fear and uncertainty.
Social media is abuzz with increasing numbers of criminals attacking civilians with guns and cleavers. Crimes against women and children are on the rise. In some areas, local leaders have resorted to using mosque loudspeakers to warn people about roaming gangs and criminal elements.
Public outrage has led to mass protests demanding stronger government action. Protestors demanded that the home affairs adviser resign. However, in a press conference called at 3 a.m. that surprised most of the journalists, the home affairs adviser blamed supporters of the previous government for the unrest. This assertion has only fuelled further anger among citizens and even local journalists.
The authorities launched “Operation Devil Hunt,” resulting in the arrest of over 8,600 individuals. The crackdown since the last two weeks continues against criminals but it is yet to give respite to locals. The authorities have failed to address deeper systemic issues.
This increasing crime rate is a big challenge for the interim government, who have so far failed to curb or control it despite hundreds of arrests. One of the analysts and a journalist said that “it is a power struggle rather than governance thus further exacerbating the country’s deteriorating condition.”
This political instability and weak law and order are leading to the resurgence of extremist ideologies. Earlier last week, a student leader who was at the forefront of the movement six months ago resigned from the adviser post of Telecommunications and Information Technology and Information and Broadcasting.
Discontent among the youth is growing. Many young leaders feel betrayed by the interim government’s failure to deliver on promises of reform and stability. A new student political party is on the cards. However, student groups are already clashing against each other. Widespread frustration has led to fresh waves of protests, strikes, and unrest, further destabilizing the country.
This uncertainty has provided fertile ground for extremist groups to reassert their influence. Reports indicate that to maintain control, the interim government has entered into covert alliances with radical political factions. Bangladesh has a history of grappling with extremism. Although past efforts had succeeded in curbing radical elements, the country now risks backsliding into a period of heightened religious and political extremism. The consequences of these alliances could be bad.
If extremist groups are allowed to gain further influence within the government and society, chances are that a progressive country could push for regressive policies, create more fear in the name of religion and foster an environment that breeds further extremism.
This changing ground situation threatens Bangladesh’s democratic fabric and will have security implications for the neighbourhood and the broader South Asian region.
Bangladesh’s Changing Foreign Policy and Relations.
In addition to the increasing domestic instability, its foreign policy is also undergoing major shifts. In a move of just six months of interim government in Bangladesh, a major geopolitical change is visible. On the one hand, minorities are being threatened and attacked, and on the other hand, Bangladesh has resumed direct trade with Pakistan for the first time since gaining independence in 1971. The recent shipment of 50,000 tonnes of rice symbolizes a new chapter in economic relations between the two historically adversarial nations.
Equally, Bangladesh is increasing its ties with China. Last week, a high-level delegation from Dhaka visited Beijing to discuss economic and security cooperation. China’s growing presence in Bangladesh has always raised concerns in New Delhi. India has historically been one of Bangladesh’s closest allies and a sincere neighbour. If Bangladesh continues to bend towards China and Pakistan, it could alter the balance of power in South Asia, potentially straining diplomatic relations with India and Western nations.
China’s increasing investment in Bangladeshi infrastructure projects could provide much-needed economic stimulus, however, it also raises concerns about debt dependency, as seen in other nations that have fallen into China’s “debt trap diplomacy.”
In the long run, the political and security crisis will take a massive toll on Bangladesh’s economy. Presently, inflation is at an all-time high in Bangladesh. Most of the daily use necessary items are becoming unaffordable for the middle class. Food prices have skyrocketed, and shortages of essential goods have become widespread. The economic downturn has disproportionately affected the working class, pushing thousands into poverty.
Foreign investors who have a lot of stakes in the country are worried because of the continuing political climate. Several multinational corporations have scaled down operations from the country and are observing the situation closely. The garment industry, Bangladesh’s largest export sector, has been hit hard by declining orders, labour strikes, logistical challenges and layoffs fearing more unemployment and brain drain in the country.
Will it lead to military rule?
The army may not be directly involved in the happenings but is watching the situation very closely and is worried. The recent attack on the Air Force base in Chittagong may have rebooted their thinking and strategy. There are growing calls for the military to intervene. The army has historically played a role in Bangladesh’s politics, stepping in during times of national crises. Will it lead to military rule? Only time will tell.
The recent warning from the army chief suggests that the military if needed, will take over and are closely monitoring the situation. If the government fails to restore order, military rule cannot be ruled out. A military intervention could bring temporary stability, but it would also raise concerns about democracy and human rights. Bangladesh has a troubled history with military rule, and another period of army-led governance could further erode democratic institutions. In the next couple of months, if the government remains ineffective, the military may see no alternative but to step in to prevent the country from descending further into chaos.
Bangladesh’s crisis is not just a domestic issue; it has regional and global implications.If the country continues down its current trajectory, it risks becoming a failed state plagued by political chaos, radicalization, and unchecked violence. The army chief’s warning serves as a stark reminder of how serious the situation has become.
To restore stability, immediate and decisive action is needed. Law enforcement agencies must be reformed and strengthened to combat crime effectively. The judiciary needs to be strict and intervene more strongly to control the increasing criminal activities. The government must also address public grievances by implementing policies that improve economic conditions and social stability. Political leaders will have to keep their emotions at bay, rise above partisan interests and work towards Bangladesh’s stability and democracy.
Bangladesh needs its own solution and not external intervention. Saner voices will have to come over the surface to push for democratic reforms, economic support, and security assistance to help the country navigate this turbulent period.
Political observers suggest that free-for-all situations and power struggles are undermining the country’s future. In present circumstances, where there is chaos, Bangladesh’s path forward looks bleak.
The next few months will be critical in determining Bangladesh’s future. Will the nation overcome its challenges and emerge stronger, or will it sink deeper into disorder? The choices made by its leaders and citizens will shape the country’s trajectory for years to come.
Author is National Editor,
Greater Kashmir
