Balancing amid India, China, and US

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has recently visited both India and China within a month, signing numerous Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and agreements, and initiating new projects with both nations. The world will be watching closely to see how Bangladesh navigates this intricate diplomatic tightrope, balancing its national interests with the demands of these powerful allies.

Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China

This week, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on July 10, 2024. During this meeting, the two nations raised their relationship to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, signalling a shift in regional dynamics. Sheikh Hasina also met Premier Li Qiang. The visit resulted in the signing of 21 agreements and the announcement of seven new projects. Among the new projects announced were the conclusion of a joint feasibility study on a China-Bangladesh Free Trade Agreement and the commencement of negotiations on optimising the China-Bangladesh Bilateral Investment Treaty. During the meetings, they agreed to elevate their relationship from a “strategic partnership” to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,”

China also will use the upcoming 50th anniversary of bilateral diplomatic relations as an opportunity to deepen the high-quality joint construction of Belt and Road projects in Bangladesh.  Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that China would support Bangladesh economically through grants, interest-free loans, concessional loans, and commercial loans. Additionally, China pledged to support Bangladesh in maintaining an independent foreign policy, pursuing a development path suited to its national conditions, safeguarding sovereignty, and opposing external interference, Xinhua reported.

Sheikh Hasina’s visit to India

On June 21, 2024, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister was on an official visit to India. The visit has been hailed as a resounding success, marking a significant milestone in the deepening partnership between India and Bangladesh. A flurry of agreements and initiatives were unveiled, reflecting the growing cooperation and shared vision between India and Bangladesh. This includes gaining road, river, and train access to transport goods to its northeastern states.

A total of ten Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) and shared Vision Papers were signed or renewed, alongside the announcement of thirteen new projects aimed at bolstering various sectors of bilateral cooperation. These initiatives encompassed a wide spectrum of areas crucial for mutual growth and development, ranging from trade logistics and infrastructure projects to initiatives in healthcare, connectivity, and regional cooperation.

Among the notable agreements were the introduction of an E-Medical Visa for Bangladeshi patients, the establishment of a new Assistant High Commission in Rangpur, the launch of a new train service between Rajshahi and Kolkata, initiation of a bus service connecting Chittagong and Kolkata, and the commencement of goods train services from Dalgaon. Additionally, plans were set in motion for the construction of an Inland Container Depot at Sirajganj and the export of power from Nepal to Bangladesh via the Indian grid.

As such, the relationship between India and Bangladesh remains a cornerstone of regional stability and economic cooperation, with Sheikh Hasina playing a pivotal role in maintaining this delicate balance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted a futuristic vision for cooperation, emphasizing partnerships in areas such as Green Partnership, Digital Partnership, Blue Economy, and Space. The launch of the India-Bangladesh “Maitri Satellite” symbolizes a new era of collaboration in space technology between the two nations, aimed at benefiting the youth and fostering innovation.

Strategic discussions also focused on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CIPA), aimed at further enhancing economic ties. Both leaders reiterated their commitment to strengthening defence cooperation, counter-terrorism efforts, and border management, underscoring mutual security interests.

Sheikh Hasina amid western scrutiny

Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China, just three weeks after her trip to India, underscores Bangladesh’s nuanced geopolitical strategy, particularly as she faces significant domestic and Western opposition, including from the US. Bangladesh’s foreign policy is under increasing Western scrutiny as the nation draws closer to China while simultaneously maintaining development partnerships with India and the United States. Although the U.S. remains Bangladesh’s largest source of foreign direct investment, China’s influence is expanding, especially through its involvement in major infrastructure projects.

Media reports indicate that nearly 7,000 Chinese enterprises are active in Bangladesh, contributing to various sectors, including trade and investment. Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen notes that this partnership has made China Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and second-largest source of foreign investment, creating over 550,000 job opportunities. Furthermore, the launch of direct flights between the two capitals signifies growing connectivity: Air China will inaugurate a direct flight from Beijing to Dhaka with plans for four weekly flights, while China Southern Airlines will launch a direct flight from Beijing to Dhaka on July 15, with two flights per week.

Delicate balance between Bangladesh and the US

As Bangladesh aligns more closely with China, it raises critical questions about how long Hasina’s government can sustain this course, particularly given the multifaceted and deeply rooted ties between Bangladesh and the United States.

The recent elections in Bangladesh appear to have shifted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina moving further into China’s orbit. Bangladesh is distancing itself from the U.S. and gravitating towards China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Media reported that the governance style of the ruling Awami League, increasingly seen as inspired by the Chinese model, further compounds these concerns.

The US of late has criticised Bangladesh’s democratic process where opposition is stifled, elections they described as procedural formalities, freedom of speech is limited, and the narrative of infrastructural development overshadows the protection of human rights.

Some of the Western countries’ analysts warn that Bangladesh is treading a perilous path. While the nation seeks to diversify its sources of loans, with significant contributions from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, Japan, Russia, China, and India, the reliance on Chinese investment poses risks. Critics fear that Bangladesh could fall into a debt trap like that of Sri Lanka, jeopardizing its economic sovereignty and stability.

Media and analysts reported that this shift can be traced back to 2012 when the World Bank accused Bangladeshi officials of corruption in a major bridge project over the River Padma. Sheikh Hasina, perceiving this as an attack on her government’s integrity, turned to China for support. The resulting Padma Bridge, completed in 2022 for $3.6 billion, aligns with China’s strategic ambitions in the region.

Since joining China’s BRI in 2016, Bangladesh has prioritized 17 major projects, including power plants, railway lines, roads, a river tunnel, port modernisation, and ICT development. Defence ties with China have also strengthened, with China supplying 74 per cent of Bangladesh’s arms imports between 2015 and 2019.

India’s concern

Sino-Bangladeshi cooperation also sets off alarm bells in India, particularly regarding defence and infrastructure projects. The Diplomat reports that the $1.2 billion China-built submarine base, named BNS Sheikh Hasina and located near Cox’s Bazaar, could have significant security implications for nearby Indian naval bases. Despite these concerns, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government has consistently reassured India that China is viewed as an economic partner rather than a security threat.

However, political pundits in India’s worries loom large over these developments. A potential problem may arise if China pushes too far, particularly with any advancements in the Teesta project. India and Bangladesh are working on the water-sharing treaty but too much delay gives room to China to launch its projects It is not good for India as the proposed project site is near the Siliguri Corridor, a geopolitically sensitive passage connecting northeastern states to the rest of the country through a narrow strip of territory measuring 20-22 kilometres at its narrowest section. Several analysts fear that China might aim to establish its presence near the corridor under the guise of development work with Bangladesh. These developments might have implications both domestically and in the broader context of regional geopolitics.

Equally, Bangladesh is crucial for India

India and Bangladesh share deep cultural, ethnic, and linguistic ties, with India playing a pivotal role in Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971 when China opposed it. Today, Dhaka relies on Delhi for essential commodities like rice, pulses, and vegetables, making India influential from the needs of the common people to now in space and defence in Bangladesh. Additionally, India has extended over $7 billion in credit to Bangladesh since 2010 for infrastructure and development projects. However, the relationship has not been without its challenges. Disputes over water resource sharing and accusations of meddling in each other’s internal affairs have occasionally strained ties.

For India, Bangladesh is more than just a neighbouring country; it is a strategic partner and a close ally vital to the security and stability of its northeastern states. Indian policymakers emphasize the importance of maintaining a friendly regime in Dhaka, with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina being a key figure in this relationship. Since her first election in 1996, Hasina has cultivated strong ties with India, a relationship that Delhi should never underestimate or be overconfident. Delhi’s concerns extend beyond political alliances; there is apprehension about the potential return of Islamist groups if Hasina is ousted. The return of the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami party could facilitate the resurgence of Islamist factions, as seen during their coalition government from 2001 to 2006 where some of the extremist groups were operating from their land. Ten trucks full of illegal arms and ammunition were recovered that were supposed to be routed towards India.

Upon assuming power in 2009, Hasina gained favour with Delhi by taking action against insurgent groups in northeast states and their hideouts and camps were destroyed.

China’s expanding economic and political influence in Bangladesh presents a significant challenge for India, as Beijing increasingly assumes the role once held by the United States in the region. Through substantial investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has funded major infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including the Padma Bridge and Payra Port and plans to build more bridges. This economic engagement is further reinforced by China’s position as Bangladesh’s largest trading partner. Additionally, China provides favourable loans and aid to Bangladesh, fostering economic dependency. Chinese military support to Bangladesh, including the supply of submarines, naval ships, and fighter jets, has bolstered Bangladesh’s defence capabilities, drawing the country closer to Beijing.

For India, this growing Chinese influence should be a cause for concern. Strategically, analysts fear encirclement through China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, which seeks to establish a network of military and commercial facilities around India, including in Bangladesh. Increased Chinese military presence in the Bay of Bengal poses a direct strategic threat. Economically, Chinese investments in Bangladesh create stiff competition for Indian businesses too.

The author is National Editor

Greater Kashmir