At stake is the narrative

What is at stake for the ruling-BJP, which takes credit for dilution of Article 370 that provided special status and protected rights of people of Jammu and Kashmir, in the ongoing assembly elections?

Certainly, given the agenda of the Narendra Modi dispensation to win every election, it is to form the first BJP government in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir after having tasted power, with now fallen out, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). And if the circumstances permitted, to have the first chief minister, if possible, a Hindu, from Jammu region which is the saffron party’s stronghold.

Will it happen? If the party achieves this “moral electoral victory” in Jammu and Kashmir with above mentioned formation and the installation of a Hindu chief minister from Jammu and Kashmir, its narrative will be strengthened and agenda for future elections set.

But there is much more attached to the present election and there is much more at stake for the BJP. At stake is protecting the narrative and the resultant political edifice built around Article 370.

One way and clearly so, of protecting this narrative is for the BJP to register a pan-Jammu and Kashmir (with its well pronounced demographic diversities) electoral victory. Winning considerably in both Jammu and Kashmir regions to get majority for government formation can take the Modi-led BJP to a new high. In such a case he and his team of strategist will take a moral high ground in claiming the victory as a befitting endorsement of August 5, 2019 constitutional change which changed Jammu and Kashmir in many respects.

With BJP deciding to contest only 20-odd out of the 47 assembly seats in Kashmir valley the prospects of such a moral victory are bleak. Even the party insiders in Jammu and Kashmir admit to fielding dummy candidates in these constituency with total dearth of nominees for other segments. That in itself conveys the glaring ground realities which the BJP is faced with to defend its Article 370 narrative.

Well, none-else but the BJP’s top brass has itself to be blamed for inflicting the first self-goal to weaken this narrative as against the Modi government and the ruling party’s crescendo claiming overall success on issues related to watering down of Article 370. The self-infliction had come in the form of the party’s decision not to field candidates in the three Lok Sabha seats of the Valley. This puzzle has still to be resolved as why did the all-powerful duo of Modi-Amit Shah decide to leave the field open for political adversaries. And that too at a high political cost.

The decision to not contest all the assembly seats in Valley is in continuation to this. It has exposed the high-octane campaign drummed up by the BJP-RSS combine over the months claiming a popular base in Kashmir through symbolism of holding “managed” party rallies at Srinagar’s Lal Chowk and the media obligingly publicizing the same.

A newer and even more grave challenge which the Narendra Modi dispensation’s narrative of nationalism and mainstreaming of Jammu and Kashmir, woven around Article 370 its dilution and demotion and division of the erstwhile state, comes in the form of sudden soft-peddling towards the hardcore elements or outfits earlier charged with supporting or funding terrorism. From mulling over removing ban on the Jamat e Islami which had been pursuing a separatist agenda, to jailed MP from Baramulla, who won Lok Sabha election from behind the Tihar Jail bars; Engineer Rashid getting bail from an NIA court just on the eve of assembly elections has raised many inconvenient questions. It reflects a dichotomous approach of the Modi government which has till date adopted a tough line against such elements.

Why was not Engineer Rashid granted bail to attend the parliament session, he was given a brief parole to take oath, but got it for the entire period of assembly elections? Does it  have any connection with the BJP’s poll strategy for Kashmir?

It all boils down to the ignominy of rejection which the BJP’s ‘Naya Kashmir’ slogan is facing in Kashmir. On the other-hand “facilitating” participation of such extreme elements in poll process, is bound to have an adverse reaction in the Hindu-majority but more heterogenous Jammu region.

In this context, a recent statement made by RSS points-man in BJP for Jammu and Kashmir elections, Mr Ram Madhav, not only explains the Centre’s dilemma but hints at the plan afoot to garner a majority and stake claim for government formation. “We will win 35 out of 43 seats in Jammu region and need another ten from the Valley to form the government,’ was how he explained the strategy.

Developments related to Jamat-e-Islami and Engineer Rashid are already having an adverse reaction in Jammu region with the BJP’s “Hindutava, hyper-nationalism and anti-Muslim” stance coming under scrutiny. Under the normal circumstances it should pose a serious challenge to the party even in its stronghold coupled with anti-incumbency against BJP leaders and the party-driven Lieutenant Governor administration.

However, there is a silver-lining. And it has been provided to them by the arch-political rivals Congress who only could checkmate BJP in Jammu region. A divided and weak leadership followed by wrong selection of candidates with all factors other than winnability becoming instrumental in the selection of candidates, has given a breather to BJP at a stage when the electoral battle-lines are being drawn.

Reverting back to Engineer Rashid; he has made all the right noises as soon as he stepped out of Delhi’s Tihar Jail. First and foremost, he refuted the charge of being a BJP proxy and expressing his resolve to fight against Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi’s Kashmir policy. He evocatively spoke about the “Kashmir issue” and his resolve to get it resolved.

It must have sent alarm bells ringing in the quarters concerned in the Union government as well as the BJP headquarters. Does Engineer Rashid mean it or it is a cover against the propaganda that contesting Lok Sabha election and his release on the eve of assembly elections has been purposely facilitated by the powers that be in Delhi?

Perhaps, not only he but the strategists in Delhi must have learnt a lesson on how the BJP’s earlier proxies, and even fledgling outfit of rebel Congressman Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, got exposed and could not hide their Delhi linkages.  However, in this latest case the onus will be more on the Narendra Modi government and BJP than on Engineer Rashid to explain this piquant development.

On landing in Srinagar, he bowed down and kissed the land. At the same time described himself as the “victim of the BJP”. It is obvious from here on that the newly elected MP is going to play the victim-card to the hilt.

“My victory in Lok Sabha election was to send a message across about what exactly the people of Kashmir want; it is not for the love of Mr. Modi...if the people were so happy about the abrogation of Article 370, why the government had to send hundreds of people to jail and why the BJP could not find even a single candidate of its own in Kashmir?” Mr. Rashid asked.

This is an interesting turn of events. If in the Kashmir Valley the focus will be on how much traction he gets particularly outside his stronghold of north Kashmir, and how strongly or not he targets the Modi government and the BJP, the saffron party has to watch with baited breath how the Rashid experiment unfolds in the three-phased elections.

And an even more important question how many seats can his party, Awami Itehad Party, which has fielded 35 candidates, win. Is there a new alliance in the making, overtly or covertly.