Assad's Era Ends - Fragile Step Forward Amid Syria’s Post-Assad Future

New Delhi,  December 10, 2024: After more than 13 years of civil war and over five decades of authoritarian rule, Syria stands at a historic crossroads. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime this weekend, Syria’s former prime minister on Monday formally agreed to transfer power to the rebel forces at a meeting in Damascus. The breakthrough event was hailed by rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani as a “victory for the entire Islamic nation,” highlighting the scale of the opposition’s triumph.

The path to peace and stability still remains full of obstacles despite a complete shift in the region’s political landscape.

On the streets of Damascus, jubilant celebrations and tearful reunions unfold alongside scenes of looting and despair.

Bashar al-Assad's rule, marked by strategic alliances with Iran and Russia, reached its denouement as opposition fighters reached the capital.

The Syrian president has fled to Russia, according to the media reports, under political asylum, leaving behind a country devastated by conflict. Videos from Damascus reveal the opulence of Assad's regime, with luxurious palaces and a collection of exotic cars now open to public scrutiny. For many, this spectacle symbolises the chasm between the ruling elite and ordinary Syrians who endured years of deprivation.

Media reported that Israel, citing security concerns, launched strikes on suspected chemical weapons sites within Syria and established a "security zone" near its border to prevent these assets from falling into extremist hands.

In Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan struck a conciliatory tone, pledging support for Syria's reconstruction and the safe return of millions of refugees currently hosted in Türkiye. “The strong wind of change in Syria will be beneficial for all Syrians, especially the refugees,” Erdoğan said. Hundreds of Syrians gathered at border crossings, eager to return home.

Erdoğan emphasised Türkiye’s vigilance against terrorism, particularly concerning Kurdish groups operating in northern Syria.

Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have expressed cautious optimism too even though many of them have hailed Assad's ouster as a step toward stability, reiterating the need for Syrian sovereignty and urging international support to rebuild the war-torn nation. Kuwait stressed the importance of preserving Syria’s unity and protecting its people from further chaos.

The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency meeting at the United Nations headquarters to address Syria's humanitarian crisis on Monday. Over 16 million Syrians remain in need of aid, with recent conflict displacing over a million people from cities like Aleppo, Homs, and Idlib.

UN spokespersons highlighted the emergency conditions with overwhelmed hospitals, looted aid supplies, and urgent funding shortages for the $4 billion Humanitarian Response Plan, of which only 30% has been met.

Despite these challenges, cross-border aid deliveries from Türkiye have resumed, providing a lifeline to northwest Syria. Yet, as winter looms, the situation grows more desperate.

The rebel alliance now governing much of Syria faces its own set of challenges. Led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda affiliate who has renounced extremism, the new leadership plans to prove its commitment to representative governance and religious tolerance, as reported by media. Jubilant Syrians are demanding accountability, security, and economic stability.

IN the coming weeks, the new regime will be tested for inclusivity and governance.

In northern Syria, the complexities of power are evident. Turkish-backed forces have seized strategic towns, reigniting tensions with Kurdish militias previously supported by the United States. Meanwhile, Israel's actions in southern Syria reflect fears that Iran-backed militias or other extremist groups could exploit the vacuum left by Assad.

The downfall of Assad invites comparisons to other West Asia strongmen—Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Saddam Hussein in Iraq—whose ousters plunged their nations into massive chaos.

In the past, it was witnessed that foreign interventions and poorly planned transitions turned these countries into further chaos. Syria now faces a similar risk. The absence of a clear roadmap for governance could lead to power struggles, revenge killings, and further fragmentation.

The political shift in Syria definitely adds a new layer of complexity to an already falling region. In addition, hostilities in Gaza, unrest in the West Bank, and a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon highlight the interconnectedness of the West Asia crisis.

Syria's transition will undoubtedly influence these dynamics, shaping alliances and rivalries across West Asia.

Both the United States and Israel have claimed credit for the present Assad's downfall which was quite quck and without much resistance. Yet their last-minute attempts to detach Assad from Tehran suggest a miscalculation of the regime's fragility.

Damascus, according to witnesses, has regained a semblance of normalcy, with civilian traffic resuming and public squares buzzing with activity, the long-term challenges of reconstruction loom large. The immediate priorities include restoring essential services, ensuring food security, and addressing the needs of millions of displaced Syrians.

However, Syria's future depends on inclusive governance, civil institutions, and economic revitalisation. Creating a transitional authority representing Syrian society's diverse fabric will be crucial.

As suggested by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), India has stressed the importance of a peaceful resolution in Syria following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. In a statement issued yesterday, the MEA urged all parties to prioritise Syria's unity and sovereignty amid ongoing unrest.

"We are monitoring the situation in Syria in light of ongoing developments. We underline the need for all parties to work towards preserving Syria's unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity," the statement read. It further advocated a "peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process" that respects the interests of all Syrians.

Syria’s future, uncertain yet filled with potential, now lies in the hands of its people and their ability to navigate the treacherous waters of transition. For the first time in generations, they have a chance to shape their own destiny. Whether they seize it remains to be seen.