As 2023 leaves us

As 2023 gives way to 2024 the thoughts of foreign policy practitioners and analysts will turn to the developments that are likely to impact global and regional affairs in the coming year. Some of these can be anticipated. There is, however, always a chance of unexpected, even ‘black swan’ events which can bypass or overturn expectations. Three developments over the past four years would fall in the category of ‘black swan’ events. This is because of their widespread and profound global impact.

The first was the covid 19 pandemic whose political, economic and technological effects are still unfolding; indeed, the pandemic has not yet entirely passed away. The second was the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 which could not have been foreseen earlier despite indications that Russian president Putin was getting impatient with NATO and EU on the Ukraine issue. The third was Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel on October 7 last year and the continuing Israeli response which has led to the death of over 20000 persons in Gaza, including women and children.

The unpredictability of ‘black swan’ events cannot and should not prevent a focus on expected events and processes in 2024. Some of these will inevitably attract substantial international focus and may also impact the flow of history. The US presidential election which will take place in early November falls in this category for it is always much more than a national election. This is because the US president holds the world’s most powerful political office. His decisions impact the course of global developments. A forward-looking and progressive US president can be a factor for global stability and can make an enormous positive contribution to addressing the main challenges of our times. He can do so even while taking care of his first responsibility which is safeguarding and promoting US interests.

As of now, the scene for the forthcoming US presidential elections cannot inspire international confidence. Unless some completely unforeseen development takes place the two contenders will be former president Donald Trump and president Joe Biden. Trump has faced legal difficulties since he handed over office. The gravest charge against him is that he was responsible for seeking to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election by inciting ‘insurrection’ on January 6, 2021 when mobs went rampaging through the US Congress.

Trump has been indicted for his actions on January 6, 2021 and the matter is before the judicial authorities of many states. Ultimately, the US Supreme Court will have to give a decision on whether Trump can be a presidential candidate. The Court is packed with conservative judges, including Trump appointees, and US laws too seem to favour that persons be allowed to stand for presidential office in almost all circumstances. Thus, the chance that Trump will not be permitted to be the Republican party candidate is slim. And, no Republican leader enjoys the popularity with the party faithful as Trump does. On the Democrats side too there is no one who can challenge Biden. Thus, the US will have to decide between an almost 82-year-old Biden who currently does not enjoy any great popularity and an over 78-year-old Trump who, as president, further polarized an already polarized US and caused global turbulence with his unconventional outlook on international affairs and his erratic diplomacy.

At a time when the US is facing a challenge to its pre-eminence from a rising China the US seems unable to produce a leader who can knit the country together to take on China. Of course, US institutions are strong and the separation of powers on which the country’s system is based insulates it from even maverick presidents. Yet there is no substitute to a rational, strong and inspirational leader especially in critical times. He provides a direction which no one else can. Thus, while China has a determined leader in Xi Jinping whose writ runs through the country’s system the top US leadership will be in the hands of those about whose abilities questions will arise in the international community. Will this lead many countries to hedge their bets between the US and China? Certainly, many states will be tempted to take nuanced positions on which US and China are on opposite sides of the spectrum. This will not augur well for the US and its allies all over the world.

The situation arising out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will continue to draw attention. The military situation within Ukraine seems to have stabilized. As long as sufficient Western military and economic support for Ukraine continues it is unlikely that Russia will succeed in either accomplishing regime change or making a military breakthrough. The global impact of the invasion on energy, fertilizer and food supplies seems also to have stabilized. Europe has taken steps to bolster its security by expanding NATO. However, inherent in the current stability in the Ukrainian situation are factors of instability. This is especially if Russian president Putin feels that Western support for Ukraine is declining and hence, he can order greater military activity for Russian forces to go beyond their current positions and thereby break Ukrainian will, leading it to negotiate on Russian terms.

As 2024 begins global attention will remain primarily focused on the Israel-Hamas war. Israel is under pressure to stop its military action in Gaza. However, it remains defiant of international opinion because the vast majority of the Jewish people within Israel and outside are determined to finish Hamas. Thus, the pain and suffering of the people in Gaza does not seem to be heading to an end in the near future. Now regional implications are emerging as well.