ANANTNAG-RAJOURI LS SEAT | Rajouri-Poonch voters form core of political arithmetic

Rajouri, Apr 1:

People of Rajouri and Poonch districts, except Sunderbani-Kalakote assembly constituency, are gearing up as voters to witness a keenly fought electoral battle in their re-drawn Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency.

Earlier, the twin border districts were part of Jammu-Poonch Lok Sabha constituency.

Interestingly, the electorate of these border districts, post delimitation exercise, form a fulcrum of interesting permutations and combinations of major key players in the ensuing poll battle. The constituency will go to polls in the third phase on May 7, 2024.

Under the changed equations, on one hand, NC, Congress and other parties of I.N.D.I. Alliance, are striving hard to increase their vote share in seven assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch while Bharatiya Janata Party is eying on voters of Pahari ethnic tribe to end their monopoly.

Following delimitation exercise, the number of assembly constituencies in twin districts Rajouri and Poonch has increased to eight from earlier seven. One constituency in Rajouri has been added whereas in the redrawn Lok Sabha constituency (Anantnag-Rajouri), out of eight, seven assembly constituencies of Rajouri-Poonch have been combined to assembly segments of South Kashmir constituencies.

Thus the new constituency has assembly segments from Kashmir valley as well as Jammu region.

From Rajouri and Poonch districts, seven out of eight assembly segments which form part of this parliamentary seat include Rajouri, Thannamandi, Budhal, Nowshera, Mendhar, Surankote and Poonch-Haveli.

However, the assembly constituency of Kalakote-Sunderbani from Rajouri district is part of the Jammu parliamentary seat.

From seven assembly constituencies of Rajouri and Poonch districts that fall under Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary seat, the National Conference and Congress supported by other parties of I.N.D.I. Alliance (INDIA) are making all out efforts to increase their vote share. As a political combine, they had secured more votes from these constituencies during 2014 assembly elections as compared to BJP.

As per the results of recent elections, both National Conference and Congress have a strong vote bank in most of the assembly constituencies of Rajouri and Poonch districts. Even in 2019, from these assembly segments, Congress candidate Raman Bhalla got more votes than BJP candidate Jugal Kishore, who however registered a win from Jammu-Poonch Lok Sabha constituency.

But in a changed scenario, the Bharatiya Janata Party, in upcoming polls, is hoping to capture the vote bank of Pahari ethnic tribe from these areas to end dominance of NC, Congress and to some extent Peoples Democratic Party, whose three candidates had won out of seven assembly constituencies from twin districts during 2014 polls.

After granting Scheduled Tribe status to Paharis, BJP is buoyed as the community has committed its full support to the party. BJP is hopeful that it can reverse the past trends which were not favourable to it.

As per the past poll results, the main contest from the areas of Rajouri and Poonch during 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP candidate Jugal Kishore had secured 1,34,653 votes from all seven assembly constituencies of Rajouri-Poonch whereas Congress candidate Raman Bhalla had secured 3,65,468 votes.

However, the BJP candidate secured four-time more votes than the Congress candidate from Nowshera assembly constituency. Congress candidate was way ahead of BJP candidate from both Darhal and Rajouri assembly segments.

In Poonch district’s three assembly constituencies, the BJP candidate got only 19,709 votes while the Congress candidate got 2,02,795 votes.

As per the results of 2019 Lok Sabha polls, in Rajouri's Nowshera assembly constituency, BJP candidate Jugal Kishore Sharma got 59,413 votes while Congress candidate Raman Bhalla got 14786; in Darhal constituency, BJP got 10,360 votes while Congress got 54,319; in Rajouri constituency, BJP got 15,976 votes and Congress got 65,641 whereas in Kalakote assembly constituency, BJP candidate got 29,195 votes whereas Congress candidate got 27,927 votes.

Similarly during 2019 Lok Sabha polls in assembly segments of Poonch district, BJP candidate Jugal Kishore Sharma secured only 1914 votes from Surankote assembly constituency while Congress candidate Raman Bhalla got 70,529 votes; in Mendhar constituency, BJP candidate got only 3157 votes but Congress candidate secured 69,351 votes whereas in Poonch-Haveli constituency, BJP’s votes were 14,638 against 62,915 votes of Congress.

While comparing the results of 2019 Lok Sabha polls with 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP's vote bank in the sub-region saw an increase. It had secured 90,829 votes during 2014 polls that increased to 1,34,653 in 2019 polls.

In 2014 polls, Congress and NC had Madan Lal Sharma as joint candidate while late Yashpal Sharma was candidate of Peoples Democratic Party who also secured a good number of votes from all seven assembly constituencies as he got 1,42,009 votes.

In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, from Nowshera assembly constituency of Rajouri, BJP candidate Jugal Kishore Sharma got 42,877 votes as compared to 14,082 votes of Congress candidate Madan Lal Sharma and 5561 votes of Yashpal Sharma.

In the Kalakote assembly constituency of Rajouri, BJP got 20,057 votes against 11850 and 13972 votes of Congress and PDP respectively.

In Rajouri and Darhal, the BJP candidate got 6376 and 11722 votes respectively whereas Congress got 27,110, PDP 22741 from Rajouri constituency while Congress got 26633 votes, PDP 18983 votes from Darhal assembly constituency.

Congress' Madan Lal Sharma had secured 20,676 votes in Surankote constituency while PDP’s Yashpal Sharma got 23018 votes and BJP’s Jugal Kishore Sharma received only 1134 votes.

In Mendhar assembly constituency, PDP candidate got 21,958 votes against 24,767 votes of Congress while BJP bagged only 1789 votes and in Haveli Poonch constituency, PDP secured 35775 votes, Congress 14901 and BJP only 6874 votes.

This time BJP anticipates better performance. Recently, a number of senior leaders of the Pahari ethnic tribe joined the BJP including Syed Mushtaq Ahmed Bukhari from Surankote; Mohammad Ayub Khan from Kotranka Rajouri and Shahnaz Ganai from Poonch.

Several other leaders including some DDC members joined BJP during the last two years. They included DDC member Mendhar Wajid Bashir Khan, DDC member Surankote Sohail Malik, DDC member Darhal Iqbal Malik, DDC member Thannamandi Abdul Quyoom Mir.

The National Conference has its District Development Council in Rajouri. NC leader Naseem Liaqat is DDC chairman while many stalwarts of NC, Congress are working hard on ground to maintain vote bank.