All eyes on Budgam: NC faces 1st political litmus test since return to power

Srinagar, Oct 14: The November 11 Budgam Assembly by-election has become the first major political test for the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) since its return to power earlier this year. What was expected to be a routine contest has turned into a crucial gauge of the party’s credibility, internal cohesion and ability to retain its traditional stronghold.

The bypoll was necessitated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah vacated Budgam while retaining Ganderbal. The seat, which the NC has held continuously since 1996, has long been anchored by the influence of the Aga Syed family. Yet this time, shifting loyalties and unfulfilled promises have made the contest less predictable.

So far, the NC has maintained silence on its candidate, fuelling speculation among party ranks and voters alike.

Agriculture Minister Javid Ahmad Dar last week dismissed reports that Omar Abdullah’s son would make his political debut from Budgam, while Omar himself ruled out his father Dr Farooq Abdullah’s candidature, saying he had refused even to contest the Rajya Sabha polls. Among the names doing the rounds, Nasir Aslam Wani — the NC’s provincial president and advisor to the chief minister — is seen as a likely choice, though party insiders say the leadership is still weighing local sensitivities and internal equations before making an announcement.

Adding to the complexity is the open dissent of Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, the influential Shia cleric and NC MP from Srinagar. Once the party’s strongest voice in Budgam, Ruhullah has publicly said he will not campaign this time, citing a lack of political will and failure to fulfil earlier commitments to the district. His decision has unsettled the NC’s base in the constituency.

Party insiders admit his absence from the campaign could weaken mobilisation in areas that have historically delivered comfortable margins for the NC.

The contest has also brought renewed attention to the NC’s governance record and pre-poll commitments. During last year’s Assembly campaign, the party had promised 200 units of free electricity to every household, but later reduced it to only those in the economically weaker section category after assuming office. Its pledges of 12 free LPG cylinders per year, one lakh jobs, and early restoration of full statehood have also largely remained unmet.

While NC leaders blame what they call “dual governance control” — a reference to the continued role of the Lieutenant Governor’s office and central oversight — critics point out that the party made these promises fully aware that it was forming a government in a Union Territory, not a state. For voters, this gap between expectation and delivery has become a major talking point ahead of polling day.

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to field Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, who lost to Omar Abdullah in 2024. The party hopes to stage a comeback in central Kashmir by focusing on youth unemployment and local development gaps. The Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) has nominated former District Development Council chairman Nazir Ahmad Khan, though his presence is viewed as adding little beyond symbolic competition.

Budgam’s electoral history since 1996 has been dominated by the National Conference, punctuated by occasional PDP surges. In 2024, Omar Abdullah won by 18,485 votes against Aga Muntazir Mehdi, though voter turnout dipped to just over 52 percent. The pattern reflects both enduring loyalty to the NC and a growing appetite for change when local grievances rise.

At the ground level, voters in Budgam, Chadoora and Beerwah say day-to-day issues such as power supply, employment and road infrastructure matter more than political slogans. “We don’t expect miracles, but we expect honesty. Free electricity was promised for all; now, only the poor get it. That’s not what was said before elections,” said a trader in Budgam market.

District authorities have increased polling stations to 173 and launched awareness drives to encourage first-time voters. Security agencies describe Budgam as “sensitive but manageable,” with area mapping and confidence-building patrols already underway.

For Omar Abdullah, the bypoll is more than a procedural exercise — it is a midterm verdict on his government’s early performance and a test of whether the NC can still command its central Kashmir base despite visible fatigue within the ranks. A strong victory would reaffirm public confidence and steady the party’s course. A reduced margin, or worse, an upset, would amplify internal dissent and give rivals room to claim lost ground.

Budgam’s outcome will therefore go beyond one assembly seat. It will show whether pre-poll promises still hold electoral weight, whether dissent within the NC can be contained, and whether the traditional loyalties that once defined central Kashmir are finally beginning to shift.