After an emphatic Delhi Win

The Delhi assembly election done and dusted, with BJP recapturing power after a long hiatus of 26 years. The other two take-aways of this poll are that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo Mr Arvind Kejriwal’s dream run has been cut short and in the process short circuiting his plans to run for the Prime Minister’s post-an over-inflated dream at that juncture. Secondly, Congress abetted the process of dethroning their arch vote-bank usurper, although establishing a record of sorts, having secured a nought for the third successive time.

After three successive wins, though giving rise to many uncomfortable questions for the BJP dispensation to address about sanctity of the poll process in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, the Narendra Modi juggernaut is once again on the roll after the saffron party’s none-to-impressive performance in Lok Sabha elections. This is so because the party’s 240 seat score has to be evaluated in the light of Mr Modi setting his sights on winning 400 seats during the course of electioneering.

After Delhi going the BJP way in an emphatic manner the next on electoral agenda of the greater Sangh Parivar, of course, will be Bihar and West Bengal where assembly elections are slated for later this year and in 2026 respectively. West Bengal, once the citadel of the Left Bloc followed by Ms Mamta Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress establishing the mark, has remained out-of-reach for the BJP despite best of the efforts and performing credibly well in Lok Sabha elections. In Bihar the party’s dream of striding to power on its own has remained unfulfilled as it has to draw solace by becoming part of coalitions and playing a second fiddle with chief minister’s chair evading it.

A small distraction from the electoral agenda of BJP, will be the Narendra Modi dispensation’s focus on Punjab where, apart from Delhi, AAP is hemming the only full-state government after it lost the half-state (read Union Territory). Despite Congress being the main contender of the AAP in the state and eager to wrest power and vote bank, as in Delhi, from the party, more keenly watched would be the BJP’s moves both at governance and political levels. The only difference is that the Congress has a strong base in Punjab with seven MPs, out of 13 seats, and 18 MLAs in the 117-member Assembly.

After failed previous attempts at winning the state assembly elections in these states, West Bengal and Punjab remaining to be the unchartered territories for the BJP till date, the impressive victory in Delhi has presented an entirely new scenario before the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah-JP Nadda combine. Punjab, as are indications, is attracting immediate attention of this combine given the fact that the Congress, though beset with its inherent problems of factionalism, mismanagement and indecisiveness, has started targeting the AAP set up, both government and the party, in the state by fomenting theories of dissensions in the ruling party and disenchantment against chief minister Mr Bhagwant Mann whose tenure has been inglorious so far. A weakened Mr Kejriwal, after Delhi defeat and having lost his own assembly seat, suits both, though in different measures but on to a common goal, to topple the Punjab government.

As against Congress’s 17, the BJP has barely two MLAs in Punjab assembly and no Lok Sabha MP. So numerically speaking none of them is in a position, on the face of it, to engineer large scale defections in the AAP which has massive 92 members in the House. However, the BJP has the advantage of a government at the Centre with proven hands to use the art of the state-craft in all its manifestations. It also has the decade long history of having dealt with many such situations to change the mathematical equations and converting majority into minority to establish its own governments. It will be interesting to see how they unravel their cards this time around.

Definitely, with a resounding victory in Delhi, the BJP top brass will be entering the Bihar contest riding a wave of optimism. The eastern state started reverberating with slogans of ‘Dilli ki jeet hamari hai, ab Bihar ki baari hai’ (Delhi is ours, now Bihar), with similar expression being given vent to in West Bengal after Delhi victory.

What will be the BJP’s strategy in Bihar this time? Will it go solo riding the wave of confidence after victories in Haryana, Maharashtra and now Delhi?

These are important question around which the BJP’s strategy would be woven. On the face of it the party’s top leaders have preempted any chance of confusion being created by claiming that the assembly elections will be fought under the leadership of Janata Dal (u) supremo and Bihar chief minister Mr Nitish Kumar, who currently heads the BJP-JD (u)- Lok Jan Shakti Party coalition. This could only be a façade. In view of the reports relating to Mr Kumar’s health and buoyed by Delhi victory in particular, the more confident and aggressive BJP under Mr Modi’s leadership can adopt a new strategy to ensure its supremacy.

There is no doubt that BJP has been steadily growing in Bihar over the years. In February 2005 assembly elections, it had a modest vote share of 10.97 per cent. It had more than doubled to 24.42 per cent by 2015. While this figure dipped to 19.46 per cent in 2020, owing to the BJP contesting fewer seats (110 compared to 157 in 2015), the party’s trajectory has been one of steady ascendancy.

The Lok Sabha elections present a similar picture of growth, with the BJP’s vote-share rising from 14.57 per cent in 2004 to 29.86 per cent in 2014, when the party contested without any coalition, before settling at 24.06 per cent in 2019. However, the Lok Sabha elections last year saw a slight decline to 22.52 per cent, a reminder of the challenges in maintaining momentum.

The Delhi election victory has reinvigorated the BJP, but its ambitions in Bihar face structural challenges. Unlike in Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh, where the BJP can assert dominance, Bihar necessitates coalition politics for survival.

Finally, West Bengal also remains enigmatic for the party despite increasing its graph and impressive showing in 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections. All efforts at cornering Ms Banerjee to subjugation have paid no dividends. This is despite the enormous resource having been pumped into the state with Raj Bhawan acting as a parallel power-centre.

In the current scenario and after Delhi victory in particular and not the ones to give it up, BJP will in all likelihood enter West Bengal next year with a new vigour. Will they be able to achieve their cherished dream of ruling West Bengal and Bihar on their own? Delhi victory preceded by Haryana and Maharashtra will certainly propel them on course but not without piercing queries regarding the use or misuse of statecraft continue to haunt the ruling dispensation.