A winter without snow
Kashmir has always been defined by its winters. Snowfall was not merely a seasonal phenomenon but it was the ecological heartbeat of the Valley. From recharging aquifers to sustaining rivers, glaciers, wetlands, and agriculture, winter snow formed the foundation of Kashmir’s hydrological security. However, the winter of 2024–25 has once again sounded alarm bells. The visible and measurable deficit in snowfall and winter rainfall is not an isolated aberration but it is part of a deeply worrying climatic trend.
The Disappearing Winter
Traditionally, Kashmir received substantial snowfall between December and February, especially in upper reaches such as Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Sonamarg, and the Pir Panjal ranges. This snowpack acted as a natural water reservoir, releasing melt water gradually during spring and summer. This year, however, winter precipitation has been sporadic, erratic, and largely rainfall-dominated rather than snow-driven.
Rainfall replacing snowfall during winter months is a dangerous climatic substitution. Rain runs off quickly, causing soil erosion and flash floods, while snow stays, stores, and sustains. The absence of snow cover has exposed fragile mountain soils, reduced moisture retention, and accelerated land degradation issues I have observed it closely since my early research on Karewas of Valley causing soil erosion in Kashmir.
Hydrological Stress: Rivers, Lakes, and Wetlands
The snow deficit has serious implications for Kashmir’s river systems, particularly the Jhelum and its tributaries. Reduced snowmelt means lower base flows in summer, increasing the likelihood of drought-like conditions, even as extreme rainfall events cause sudden floods.
Wetlands and lakes like Dal, Wular, Anchar, Hokersar are among the first casualties of altered hydrology. During my extensive work on Dal Lake, Wular Lake, Sulphur springs of Ananatnag and other water bodies, I consistently found that seasonal snowmelt played a critical role in maintaining water chemistry, nutrient balance, and ecological health. Reduced inflows concentrate pollutants, worsen eutrophication, and accelerate ecological decline.
Wular Lake, in particular, already under stress from encroachment and sedimentation, faces further shrinkage risks due to insufficient winter recharge. Wetlands that once acted as flood buffers and biodiversity hubs are steadily losing resilience.
Agriculture and Livelihoods at Risk
Winter snowfall also serves as a protective blanket for crops, orchards, and soil microorganisms. Its absence exposes apple orchards, saffron fields, and winter crops to frost damage and moisture stress. The chilling hours required for apple productivity are declining, directly impacting yields and farmer incomes.
Rain-fed agriculture in Kashmir’s uplands and kandi areas I later addressed through climate-resilient agriculture initiatives under the State Action Plan on Climate Change will face increasing uncertainty if winter precipitation continues to fail.
Climate Change is no Longer a Projection
For decades, climate change was discussed as a future risk. In Kashmir, it has become a reality. Warmer winters, early snowmelt, shifting precipitation patterns, cloudbursts, hailstorms, and prolonged dry spells are now frequent.
During my work on the J&K State Action Plan on Climate Change (JKSAPCC), these risks were clearly identified under water resources, agriculture, disaster management, and Himalayan ecosystems. What we are witnessing today is not policy failure, but policy urgency which needed to be addressed to fill the gap between planning and on-ground action.
Increased Disaster Vulnerability
Ironically, less snow does not mean fewer disasters. On the contrary, it increases hydro-meteorological extremes. Rain instead of snow events, cloudbursts, landslides, and flash floods become more likely when temperature and precipitation patterns destabilize.
The recent spate of cloudbursts and landslides across Jammu and Kashmir is closely linked to this changing winter regime. Snow once moderated these events and its absence now removes a critical buffering mechanism.
What Needs to be Done
Kashmir stands at a climatic crossroads. Addressing winter precipitation deficit requires a multi-pronged response:
Strengthening climate monitoring through dense meteorological and snow-gauge networks in upper catchments.
Protecting and restoring wetlands and floodplains, which serve as natural water regulators.
Reviving traditional water management systems and promoting snow-harvesting and groundwater recharge.
Climate-resilient agriculture, including crop diversification and soil moisture conservation.
Strict land-use regulation in ecologically sensitive zones to prevent erosion and runoff.
Mainstreaming climate risk into governance, infrastructure planning, tourism, and urban development.
Creating a web portal on critical environmental parameters.
Collection of all data at one platform
Providing an Institutional mechanism to deliver.
A Call for Ecological Wisdom
Kashmir’s snow is not merely a scenic attraction but it is a strategic ecological asset. Its loss signals deeper systemic imbalance. As someone who has spent over four decades working on Kashmir’s environment, its waters, soils, policies, and people, I believe the crisis we face today is also an opportunity: to rethink development, restore nature-based solutions, and place climate resilience at the heart of governance.
A winter without snow should not become Kashmir’s new normal. The cost of inaction will be borne not just by ecosystems, but by generations to come.
