A Turning Point in the Middle East?

The current developments in Syria, where Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has gained power and forced Bashar al-Assad to flee, represent a seismic shift in the Middle East’s geopolitical dynamics. This upheaval is more than just a regional event; it is a watershed moment with global repercussions, especially for the United States, Israel, Russia, Iran, and Turkey. While HTS’s ascendency may provide a momentary sense of relief for Syrians, the overall picture remains dismal, with geopolitical maneuvering, expansionist goals, and shifting alignment of powers.

 Israel's strategic expansion

Israel emerges as a major beneficiary of this upheaval. With HTS’s takeover, the Assad regime—a long-standing enemy of Israel backed by Iran and Hezbollah—has disintegrated, leaving a power vacuum. In fact, today, Israel has already directed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to take additional Syrian territory, supporting its longstanding expansionist agenda of creating a greater Israel. This decision not only strengthens Israel’s territorial ambitions, but it also severely limits Iran’s capacity to help Hezbollah and Hamas. Due to the removal of Assad, Iran loses its primary partner, interrupting weapons supply channels from Syria to these proxy groups. As a result, Israel is now better positioned to achieve its geopolitical objectives with less opposition.

The United States' Strategic Victory

For the United States, the removal of Assad and the growth of HTS represent a significant geopolitical win. Washington has significantly reduced Russian influence in Syria, a critical ally in Moscow’s Middle East strategy. By providing logistical and material assistance to HTS, the United States has changed the balance of power in an area where Russia traditionally wielded significant influence. This geopolitical development isolates Russia while also undermining Iran, another US enemy, by cutting off its critical access to Syria and supply routes to Hezbollah. The United States has achieved a strategic victory in the region, hurting its opponents while strengthening its own position.

Turkey's opportunistic moves

Turkey, another crucial participant, is expected to take advantage of the situation by expanding its territorial ambitions in northern Syria. For years, Turkey has attempted to crush Kurdish factions in the region while increasing its power. With the fall of the Assad administration, Ankara sees an opportunity to safeguard its southern borders and broaden its sphere of influence. Turkey’s assistance for HTS, on the other hand, complicates its position because it must navigate the hurdles of accommodating its own goals while ensuring HTS’s continued cooperation.

Russia’s Strategic Defeat

Russia, Assad's staunch backer, has received a devastating blow. Moscow's actions in Syria were meant to improve its Middle Eastern position, maintain access to naval facilities at Tartus, and project regional supremacy. The demise of Assad's regime is a significant loss for Russian influence, since Moscow now lacks a reliable friend in Syria. This outcome not only weakens Russia's strategic leverage, but also sends a message to other regional players that its commitments may not guarantee success.

Iran’s regional setback

Iran is undoubtedly the largest loser from this unprecedented geopolitical development. For years, Tehran relied on Syria as a vital conduit for aiding Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The collapse of Assad interrupts these supply lines, reducing Iran’s dominance in the Levant. This strategic failure inhibits Iran’s ability to project power in the region, undermining its overarching goals of fighting Israel and growing regional influence.

The cost for Syria and its people

While foreign forces have benefited strategically, the Syrian people have suffered the brunt of this horrific conflict. They suffered greatly under Assad’s tyrannical regime, and the rise of HTS provides no relief. The new authorities face huge hurdles in running a war-torn country, and their ability to deliver stability and basic amenities is unknown. Furthermore, the presence of external powers such as the United States, Israel, and Turkey, each with its own geo-stragic objectives, will complicate HTS governance. Syria remains a chessboard for global players, with its citizens caught in the crossfire.

The challenges ahead for HTS

HTS’s dominance over Syria presents numerous challenges. More than military triumph, governing a fragmented nation requires political legitimacy, economic stability, and social cohesiveness. HTS must also handle the opposing objectives of its supporters, which include the United States, Turkey, and Israel, each with their own geo-strategic objectives. Balancing these demands and meeting the needs of the Syrian people will put the group’s ability to govern effectively to the test. Furthermore, as opposing factions compete for power and influence, new fault lines are expected to arise within Syria and throughout the region.

Geopolitical implications and the future

The Syrian crisis is far from over. The development of HTS has ushered in a new era of geopolitical conflict, with major nations vying to secure their interests in a fractured region. The consequences go beyond Syria, affecting the entire Middle East and the world order. Israel will continue to pursue expansionist tactics, further destabilizing this region. The United States will build on its geopolitical advancements, using Syria to oppose Russia and Iran. Turkey will pursue its territorial ambitions, further complicating the situation. Russia and Iran will re-evaluate their strategies, focused on reducing their losses and regaining their influence. Syria and its people continue to face bleak prospects. The revolution may have eliminated Assad, but it has not addressed the underlying flaws that caused the conflict. Instead, it has produced new challenges, with other powers manipulating the situation for their own objectives. Syria's route to stability and peace remains difficult, with the country still serving as a piece in a bigger geopolitical chess game.

Imran Khurshid, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Kashmir, specializes in Indo-Pacific studies and South Asian security issues.