A test of stability and political resilience

New Delhi, Aug 17: The long-awaited elections in Jammu and Kashmir have finally been announced and are set to unfold over three phases on September 18, September 25, and October 1, with results scheduled for October 4.

This election marks a crucial moment for the region, signalling a potential return to statehood and a test of political resilience in a territory that has seen profound changes since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.

The Road to Elections

The announcement of the elections comes after considerable anticipation and political manoeuvring.

The ruling government had pledged in both houses of the parliament to hold these elections once the situation in the region stabilised.

The Supreme Court also set a deadline of September 30 for the elections to be conducted, reinforcing the government’s commitment to restoring democratic processes in J&K.

These elections are particularly significant as these are the first since the bifurcation of the State into two union territories— J&K and Ladakh.

The Legislative Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir has seen an increase in seats to 90, reflecting the new political reality.

However, the exclusion of Ladakh from the assembly adds a new dimension to the political landscape.

The Return of Statehood

One of the most anticipated outcomes of this election is the potential restoration of statehood to J&K.

The promise of returning the region to statehood status, after years of being governed as a union territory, is a significant achievement that the ruling party is likely to showcase.

However, this is not just a legal or administrative change; it carries deep symbolic value for the people of J&K, representing a step towards normalcy and self-governance.

The restoration of statehood could also alter the dynamics of the election itself.

Political parties, both national and regional, would undoubtedly leverage this issue to galvanise support. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to emphasise its role in facilitating this transition, while opposition parties, including the Congress, may argue that the BJP’s policies have further alienated the local population, making statehood a necessity rather than an achievement.

A Triangular Contest

The electoral landscape in J&K is poised for a triangular contest.

On one side are the regional mainstream political parties, including the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which have traditionally dominated the political scene.

These parties, despite being weakened in recent years, are not out of the race.

They will likely focus on rebuilding their cadre and youth wings, aiming to regain their lost foothold in the region. The BJP, which has gained considerable strength in J&K since the abrogation of Article 370, will present itself as the architect of the new political order.

The party’s strategy will revolve around the narrative that the removal of Article 370 has been widely accepted and that it has restored stability and integration with the rest of India.

The BJP will likely target the Jammu region, where it has a solid support base while making inroads into Kashmir, where its acceptance has historically been limited.

The Congress party, while struggling to regain its influence in the region, would position itself as the defender of Kashmiri sentiments.

Although it may not directly criticise the abrogation of Article 370, it would argue that the BJP's policies have exacerbated the alienation of the people of J&K.

The Congress will try to tap into the discontent among the electorate, particularly in Kashmir, where the impact of the 2019 decisions is still deeply felt.

Adding to the complexity is the potential role of secessionist elements, who, in the past, have often called for a boycott of elections.

However, this time there is speculation that secessionist leaders might adopt a different strategy. Learning from the example of Engineer Rashid, a jailed political leader who managed to run a successful campaign through his family and won the recent Lok Sabha election from north Kashmir, defeating stalwarts like Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone, secessionists may field proxy candidates or support independents.

This move could present a significant challenge, particularly in Kashmir and Muslim-dominated areas of Jammu.

International Observers

The J&K elections are also drawing attention from international observers, given the region's strategic significance and the global interest in its stability.

Pakistan and China, both of whom have been sitting on the fence, may attempt to desecrate the electoral process.

However, their ability to do so is limited, as India has taken extensive measures to ensure security and prevent any external interference.

The international community would be watching closely, not only for the election results but also for how the process is conducted.

A smooth and peaceful election would bolster India's position that the situation in J&K is stabilising, despite the challenges.

Conversely, any significant unrest or controversy could provide ammunition for those who argue that the region remains volatile and in need of further attention.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the optimism surrounding the elections, several challenges loom large.

The political landscape in J&K has been altered since 2019, with new electoral boundaries and changes in the electorate's composition.

The inclusion of new voters following the amendment of residency laws, and new boundaries of some of the constituencies make it interesting and challenging.

Moreover, the security situation remains a critical concern. Although the intensity of terrorism has massively reduced, the region is still prone to sporadic violence.

The government has implemented a robust security plan to ensure that the elections proceed without major disruptions, but the potential for unrest cannot be entirely ruled out.

Another factor that could influence the election is the economic situation in J&K.

The region's economy has suffered significantly due to the pandemic and the prolonged lockdowns following the abrogation of Article 370.

Unemployment, particularly among the youth, is a pressing issue that political parties would need to address in their campaigns.

The electorate’s response to promises of economic development and job creation could be a decisive factor in the election’s outcome.

Crystal-Ball Gazing: What Lies Ahead?

As the election dates approach, several scenarios could play out. If the BJP manages to secure a significant victory, it would likely interpret the result as a validation of its policies in J&K, including the abrogation of Article 370.

Such an outcome could embolden the party to pursue similar strategies in other contentious regions, potentially leading to further centralisation of power.

On the other hand, a strong showing by regional parties like the NC or PDP could signal a dilution of the BJP’s approach and a demand for greater autonomy.

This could lead to renewed calls for restoring the pre-2019 status of J&K, or at the very least, a push for more substantial local governance.

Other regional political parties like the Peoples Conference (PC), Apni Party, or Panthers Party also have the potential to win a few seats in the region.

Will they fight individually or collectively is to be seen.

A third possibility is a fragmented verdict, where no single party emerges dominant.

This could lead to a coalition government, which might struggle to provide stable governance in a region already fraught with challenges.

Such an outcome could also complicate the process of restoring statehood, as competing political interests vie for control. Regardless of the outcome, the elections in J&K will have far-reaching implications, not just for the region but for the broader political landscape in the country.

They will test the resilience of democratic institutions in a post-Article 370 environment and set the tone for the future of this region. As the campaign unfolds, all eyes will be on Kashmir, watching to see whether this election brings the stability and progress that its people have long yearned for, or whether it exacerbates the divisions that have affected the region for decades.