A Shocking Assassination

Policy Matters

Tensions in West Asia have escalated further with the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Political Head of Hamas, in Tehran, in the early hours of July 31. Haniyeh was spending most of his time in Doha, Qatar since October 7 last year, the day Hamas attacked Israel. He was on a visit to the Iranian capital for the swearing in ceremony of the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, on July 30. In Tehran, Haniyeh had met Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as well as Pezeshkian. Iran has claimed that the Haniyeh was killed by an “airborne guided projectile”.

As I write these lines, Israeli spokespersons have neither denied nor accepted that the operation to kill Haniyeh was carried out by their forces or secret agencies. At the same time, on July 31, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “From the beginning of the war, I made it clear that we are fighting against the Iranian axis of evil. In my speech to the Congress, I emphasized the three main tools of the Iranian axis of evil: Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah. In the past few days, we have dealt a crushing blow to each of them. Three weeks ago, we targeted Hamas Chief of Staff Mohammed Deif. Two weeks ago, we attacked the Houthis in one of the most far-reaching operations, and yesterday we targeted Hezbollah Chief of Staff’.

Israel’s attack against Fuad Shukar, the military leader of Hizbollah, came after the group had launched a missile strike on the Golan heights on July 27 which had led to the death of 12 children playing football. While Netanyahu did not mention the Haniyeh assassination, from the timing and tone of his speech, it can be assumed that Israel carried it out. In the past too, it is believed, that Israeli agents were behind the assassinations of some prominent Iranian scientists on Iranian soil itself.

The Haniyeh assassination is part of Netanyahu and Israel’s right wing parties determination to eliminate the Hamas. They wish to do so irrespective of the costs they inflict on innocent people in Gaza. Already Israel has killed around 39600 people in Gaza. It has steadfastly refused to accept any calls for ceasefire even though it has engaged in indirect talks with Hamas on the release of the hostages belonging to Israel and other countries who remain in Hamas’s custody as well as on ceasefire. On October 7 last year Hamas had killed 1200 Israelis and had taken 255 hostages to the Gaza strip; it is believed that around 120 still remain in Hamas’s captivity.

It is significant that Israel carried out Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran. It was obviously meant as a signal to the Iranian government that Israel has the means to target individuals in Iran. Ever since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 Iran and Israel have been bitter enemies. This was clearly reflected in Netanyahu’s speech to the US Congress to which he referred in his address to the Iranian nation on July 31. In his address to the Congress on July 25 he said this about Iran “In the Middle East, Iran is virtually behind all the terrorism, all the turmoil, all the chaos, all the killing. And that should come as no surprise. When he founded the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini pledged, “We will export our revolution to the entire world. We will export the Islamic revolution to the entire world.” Now, ask yourself, which country ultimately stands in the way of Iran’s maniacal plans to impose radical Islam on the world? And the answer is clear: It’s America, the guardian of Western civilization and the world’s greatest power. That’s why Iran sees America as its greatest enemy”. It has remained Israel’s objective to ensure that the US and Iran do not normalise ties. That is why it had so stoutly opposed the Iran-US nuclear deal which President Barack Obama had negotiated with the Iranians. President Donald Trump repudiated it and despite his efforts President Biden and Iran have not succeeded in putting it back in place.

International reactions to Haniyeh’s assassination have been on predictable lines. China, Russia and the Islamic countries, including Qatar and Egypt, which have been attempting to bring about a ceasefire and the return of hostages from Gaza, have condemned the assassination. Western countries have not really commented on it even though all also want Israel to accept a ceasefire. In the US the Israel-Hamas war will become a significant issue between Trump and Kamala Harris, the two Presidential candidates. The former will have no reluctance in going along with the assassination for he is all in with Israel. The latter’s position will get more complicated with the assassination because there is already a substantial body of opinion in the Democratic Party which is critical of Israel’s brutal response to the Hamas attack. The Haniyeh assassination will only make this opinion sharper.

The question uppermost on all minds is if the Haniyeh assassination could lead to a wider war. Iran’s Supreme Leader has said that his country must avenge the murder of a guest. Iran cannot refrain from taking kinetic action against Israel. What is likely is that it will seek to calibrate it so that it would assuage its public opinion, the Arab supporters of Hamas and the bruised ego of its security class. There will be also pressures on Israel not to go in for a tit for tat reaction. Hence, while the chances of a wider conflagration cannot be ruled out it is unlikely.