A decade of change

The political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed significant changes over the past three Assembly elections—2008, 2014, and 2024. Each election marked a shift in voter behaviour, driven by key events such as the abrogation of Article 370, the emergence of new political players, and changing regional dynamics.

2008: Stability and Continuity

The 2008 Assembly elections were held at a time of political stability, with traditional regional parties maintaining their hold. The National Conference (NC), led by Omar Abdullah, emerged as the largest party, winning 28 seats. With 17 seats, the Congress formed a coalition government with NC. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) secured 21 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remained a minor player, winning just 11 seats.

Omar Abdullah’s leadership brought hope for stability and development, as he became the youngest Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir. This election showed that voters leaned toward familiar regional parties, valuing stability over drastic changes.

2014: A Watershed Moment

The 2014 Assembly elections marked a dramatic shift. The BJP made significant gains, especially in Jammu, winning 25 seats and establishing itself as a major player in the state. The PDP became the largest party with 28 seats, while NC’s seat count fell to 15, and Congress secured only 12 seats. This marked the decline of traditional political forces in the region.

The post-election coalition between the PDP and BJP was an attempt to bridge the gap between Jammu and the Kashmir Valley. However, the ideological differences between the two parties created tension, and the coalition eventually collapsed in 2018, leading to a period of Governor’s rule. The 2014 elections were a turning point, as the BJP's rise changed the political dynamics of Jammu and Kashmir.

2024: Post-Abrogation of Article 370

The 2024 assembly elections were the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which ended Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. The National Conference (NC), led by Omar and Farooq Abdullah, made a significant comeback, winning 42 out of 90 seats. The BJP, while maintaining its strength in Jammu, secured 29 seats. Meanwhile, Congress, PDP, and other regional parties saw a major decline in influence.

The NC’s strong performance contradicted exit polls that had predicted a fragmented outcome. The results reflected continued support for regional representation, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, where the abrogation of Article 370 had raised concerns about regional autonomy. Despite this, the BJP maintained its dominance in Jammu, showing that the region’s voters supported the party’s stance on national integration.

Voter Behaviour and Political Shifts

A closer look at voter behaviour from 2008 to 2024 reveals several trends. The BJP’s vote share surged in 2014, reflecting its growing influence in Jammu. By 2024, the BJP retained a similar vote share of around 25%, while the NC gained momentum with 23.43%. The sharp decline of the PDP, which dropped from 28 seats in 2014 to just 3 in 2024, indicated a shift in voter sentiment, likely due to the party's alliance with the BJP and its unclear position on Article 370.

Voter turnout in 2024 was higher, signalling increased public engagement. Many voters viewed this election as a chance to shape the region’s future after the significant changes brought by the revocation of Article 370.

Changing Political Alliances

Key political figures in Jammu and Kashmir, including Omar Abdullah, Iltija Mehbooba Mufti, and Altaf Bukhari, faced intense contests in 2024. The election results highlighted growing dissatisfaction with established political leaders and a desire for new leadership. Despite these challenges, the NC’s strong performance showed that voters in the Valley still favoured regional representation.

Many exit polls failed to predict the NC’s resurgence, underestimating the strength of regional sentiment. The BJP’s continued strength in Jammu reflected the ideological divide between Jammu and Kashmir, which remains a defining feature of the region’s politics.

The Impact of Article 370's Abrogation

The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 dramatically reshaped Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape. The 2024 election was the first major test of how the region would respond to this change. In Jammu, the BJP’s success reflected support for the decision to revoke Article 370. However, in the Kashmir Valley, voters rallied around the NC, showing that many still valued regional identity and autonomy.

The abrogation also energised younger voters, many of whom were voting for the first time in 2024. This new generation of voters was highly engaged, driving the increase in voter turnout. The election reflected both the support for national integration in Jammu and the demand for regional autonomy in Kashmir.

The Decline of the PDP

One of the most significant political shifts in the 2024 election was the collapse of the PDP, which went from being the largest party in 2014 to winning only 3 seats. The PDP’s decision to ally with the BJP in 2014 alienated its traditional voter base, who saw the coalition as compromising on key regional issues. 

This trend is not unique to Jammu and Kashmir. Similar patterns have emerged in states like Punjab and Haryana, where regional parties that allied with the BJP faced a backlash from their voter base. The decline of the PDP serves as a warning to other regional parties about the risks of aligning with larger national parties.

The Rise of Bipolar Politics

The 2024 election marked a shift toward bipolar politics, with the NC and BJP emerging as the two dominant forces in Jammu and Kashmir. This trend mirrors political developments in other states, such as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, where two major parties dominate the political landscape, leaving little room for smaller regional parties.

The consolidation of power between the NC and BJP signals a new political reality in Jammu and Kashmir. Voters are increasingly aligning with one of the two major parties, reducing the influence of smaller parties like the PDP and Congress. This shift could have long-term implications for the region’s governance, as political competition becomes more centralized.

Conclusion: A New Chapter for Jammu and Kashmir

The 2024 Assembly elections have shown that Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape is evolving, with regional identity and national integration playing key roles in shaping voter behaviour. The NC’s resurgence in the Valley reflects the electorate’s desire to preserve regional autonomy, while the BJP’s continued strength in Jammu underscores its appeal to voters who support national integration.

Looking ahead, the challenge for Jammu and Kashmir’s leaders will be to bridge the divide between the Valley and Jammu. Inclusive governance that addresses the unique needs of both regions will be crucial to ensuring long-term stability and development.

The 2024 elections mark a new chapter in Jammu and Kashmir’s political history. The results highlight the region’s commitment to democratic processes and its determination to shape its own future, even in the face of significant changes. As Jammu and Kashmir continues to navigate its new political reality, the lessons from these elections will shape the region’s future for years to come.

Aaqib Hamid, Political Consultant, Campaigner and Researcher Scholar