8th October: One more day to go

On the 8th of October, 2024, what is going to happen?

Those interested in the politics of Kashmir are keeping fingers crossed, those invested in Kashmir are waiting with a bated breath, and those living in Kashmir are anxious, and fearful. Kashmiri Muslims are not fearful without a reason.

Right now one can count three major possibilities, in terms of the electoral results.

First, the NC-INC alliance gets the required numbers and forms the government. Second, BJP gets enough seats from Jammu and manages ones and twos from here and there to cobble together a working majority. Third, NC gets a substantial number of seats in Kashmir, BJP from Jammu, but none is in a position to lay claim to government formation.

If the BJP comes to power, we know how they view Kashmir, and what can that mean to Kashmir. BJP represents an extreme end of politics, and it is drenched in a particular ideology. It will try to get into the deeper spaces of the society. Ideological forces work that way and there are no surprises in that.

In case NC-INC alliance wins, it will be an immediate relief for the people of Kashmir. And if Congress really makes an impressive performance in Jammu, that would mean Jammu also wanted a change. May be it gives a reason for the people living in two divisions to momentarily overcome that perception of being two antagonistic blocks. However, the challenge for the alliance would be to work within very restricted, and restrained, powers. In that case the tension between the BJP government in Delhi, represented by the LG's office in J&K, and the J&K government represented by the assembly, can heat up the streets.

The third possibility, where none gets a majority, is a very curious, and dangerous, situation. Right now that seems to be the more likely outcome. What can happen in that case, is something we all, as a people, should be worried about. Though in a very different placement, it would remind us of the 2014 assembly elections when PDP was on the one side and BJP on the other. The Kashmiri Muslim society, entirely, wanted PDP not to enter into an alliance. But the PDP, after ensuring that the drama and suspense prolonged for some months, finally decided to enter into an alliance. Politics is not evaluated on intensions, and politics is not about judging people. Political decisions bring real results. That decisions in 2014 was more devastating than the floods that drowned Kashmir some months before in the same year.

Would NC do the same thing this time around. God forbid. The Kashmir based political parties, particularly NC, need to think long term. That can help formulate better decisions, and generate appropriate response in the short term. Any misstep can have a dangerous, and dangerously long term, consequences.

If nothing, this is the time National Conference atoned for the political sins it committed, knowingly or otherwise, in the past. It is not to make a moral judgment about the current leadership of the NC. Not at all. It is only to remind this leadership, particularly, Omar Abdullah, that this is a critical moment and you are in the eye of the storm. You have age on your side, and if you think long term, taking the core sensibilities and cardinal fears of Kashmir's Muslim society, into account, you can emerge as a political leader who can build influence beyond his own party. When I say Muslim society, it doesn't mean a theological construct. It means a political construct that has its own peculiarities, and can be well managed without hurting the imperatives of inclusivity, and not at all demeaning or undermining other identities.

At this moment some really menacing memories from Kashmir, and elsewhere, lay siege to one's mind. The 1987 J&K assembly elections when rigging at large scale paved way for devastating times. The 2014 J&K assembly elections when the mandate of the Kashmiri Muslims to keep BJP out was thoroughly violated, and it plunged Kashmir into existential crisis. Elsewhere in the Muslim world, when the democratic expression of the people in Algeria, in Egypt, in erstwhile East Pakistan was forcibly deflected, it brought large scale devastation.

At this moment if the electoral expression of Kashmiri Muslims is once again deformed into something entirely opposite to what it is, it can be a catastrophe. National Conference, as a political party, is at a crossroads, and so is the politics that inherently resides in the Kashmiri Muslims. Can the NC leadership resist the pressure that will come to it from multiple quarters in case such a situation arises. One can only pray that NC and the politics of Kashmiri Muslims take the same turn at this crossroads.

Not so difficult to grasp that doing politics is not as easy as making a political comment. Imagine a scenario where BJP at New Delhi offers restoration of complete statehood, the rights over land and jobs, in case NC agrees to enter into a coalition with it. What are the options for the NC?!

May be, involving all in the negotiations, waiting till the parliament actually passes the resolution and the changes are effected, and then formulate a National Government of J&K, rather than a National Conference-BJP government, and prepare for fresh elections. A sort of new constituent assembly, a new compact, and a new beginning. If wishes were horses......

Final word: it is a test for National Conference leadership, and one can only pray that this time around it doesn't fail.