4th RS Seat Showdown: Seven independents emerge as kingmakers
Srinagar, Oct 21: As Jammu and Kashmir heads into a high-stakes Rajya Sabha election on October 24, the political atmosphere in the region has become charged with speculation and maneuvering.
The seven independent MLAs in the 88-member Legislative Assembly have suddenly become the most sought-after players, holding the key to a tight contest between the National Conference (NC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the decisive fourth seat.
With voting to be conducted through proportional representation and a single transferable vote, each candidate will need around 45 votes to secure a seat in a single-seat contest, or approximately 29 votes per seat in a two-seat election – the 3rd and 4th seats.
Given the current numerical configuration, neither the NC-led ruling alliance nor the BJP-led opposition bloc commands a clear majority in the risky fourth seat, making the support of independents critical.
The NC has nominated Choudhary Muhammad Ramzan, Sajad Ahmad Kichloo, Shammi Oberoi, and Imran Nabi Dar for the Upper House, while the BJP has fielded Sat Sharma, Ali Muhammad Mir, and Rakesh Mahajan.
The Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have kept their cards close to the chest, refusing to commit to either camp on whom they will vote or abstain.
People's Conference’s Sajad Gani Lone has already announced his decision to abstain from voting.
Efforts by the NC and Congress to forge a joint understanding faltered at the last moment.
Congress leaders had initially agreed not to field their own nominee for the more competitive seat, but the issue of how independent MLAs would vote caused the talks to collapse.
The inability of parties to monitor the ballots of independents, who are not bound to show their marked vote to any polling agent, has created deep mistrust among potential allies.
Among the seven independents, five – Satish Sharma, who is minister in CM Omar Abdullah’s cabinet, Pyare Lal (Inderwal), Muzaffar Khan (Rajouri), Choudhary Akram (Surankote), and Rameshwar Singh (Bani) - have extended support to the government of CM Omar.
Two others – Sheikh Khursheed (Langate) and Shabir Ahmed Kullay (Shopian) are close to the non-BJP opposition bloc.
Political insiders say that with the BJP reportedly a vote short of the winning mark in the 4th seat, the decisions of these seven MLAs could tilt the balance decisively.
Rajya Sabha elections in India are conducted under an open ballot system, but the rules differ for party members and independents.
According to officials, “Legislators belonging to political parties must show their marked ballot paper to the authorised party agent before casting it, and failing to do so invalidates their vote.
However, independent MLAs must keep their votes secret and cannot reveal them to anyone.
If they do, their vote is cancelled.
This provision makes it impossible for any party to verify how an independent legislator has voted, intensifying the suspense surrounding the upcoming poll.
Rajya Sabha elections are not governed by the anti-defection law, meaning no party whip applies and legislators can vote freely without risking disqualification.
The Supreme Court, in Kuldip Nayar versus Union of India, 2006, upheld this system, clarifying that cross-voting does not amount to defection.
As the countdown begins, the contest for the fourth seat has turned into a test of strategy and persuasion rather than arithmetic.
For the NC, the outcome will determine whether it can consolidate its strength within the Assembly.
For the BJP, it is a chance to demonstrate its growing influence in J&K’s political arena.
Ultimately, the seven independents, armed with secret ballots and unbound by party lines, will decide who prevails in one of the most closely watched Rajya Sabha elections in the region’s recent history.
