4th Rajya Sabha seat in J&K hangs on kingmakers’ votes

Srinagar, Oct 13: The fourth Rajya Sabha seat in Jammu and Kashmir has emerged as the most intriguing contest in the elections, where the outcome is poised to be determined less by the major parties and more by regional players with fewer seats and independents.

At the centre of this political drama are the People's Democratic Party (PDP) with three MLAs, the J&K Peoples Conference (PC) with one, the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with one MLA each, and key independents. With Congress abstaining from direct participation, these smaller actors have effectively become kingmakers, holding disproportionate influence over who will ultimately claim the fourth seat.

The National Conference (NC), with its 41 MLAs and the support of allied independents bringing its effective strength to 47, has fielded its spokesperson, Imran Nabi Dar, for this crucial seat.

The party enjoys a numerical advantage that should allow it to comfortably secure three of the four Rajya Sabha seats. Indeed, the first two single-seat notifications, covering the positions vacated by Mir Mohammad Fayaz and Shamsher Singh, are virtually assured for NC, which can surpass the 45-vote quota with ease.

The fourth seat, however, falls under the second notification, which clubs two vacancies together, making strategic vote allocation and negotiations critical. Here, NC can direct 29 votes in favour of one candidate for 3rd seat while retaining 24 votes, including 6 votes of Congress for the other, a tactical calculation designed to maximise its leverage.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with 28 MLAs, has intensified the contest by nominating its Jammu and Kashmir unit president, Sat Sharma, signalling a direct challenge to NC’s dominance.

Yet, as Chief Omar Abdullah noted, “BJP has only 28 MLAs; for the fourth seat, they need 30 votes. Without horse-trading or some parties abstaining, the BJP candidate cannot win.” This statement captures the numerical reality: BJP cannot secure victory on its own and will need support from the smaller parties or independents, or rely on cross-voting and abstentions to bridge the gap.

The PDP, despite being part of the national opposition bloc, has remained tight-lipped, keeping its position deliberately ambiguous, while PC, AIP, and AAP have also not announced their intentions. Each of these parties now wields outsized influence, effectively deciding whether the fourth seat will tilt toward NC, BJP, or produce an unexpected outcome.

The complexity of the situation is compounded by Congress’s decision to abstain from direct involvement, which was initially anticipated as a potential claimant for the fourth seat. This abstention adds another layer of unpredictability, as smaller parties weigh their strategic interests in the absence of Congress’s direct participation. With approximately 29 votes required for each seat in the two-member notification covering the vacancies left by Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmed Laway, the interplay of vote management, alliance-building, and tactical abstentions will likely determine the final result.

While NC appears well-positioned to win three of the four seats, the fourth seat exemplifies the fragility and fluidity of coalition politics in Jammu and Kashmir. In this scenario, even a few MLAs from smaller parties or independents can hold the balance of power, demonstrating the crucial role that political negotiation and strategic decision-making play in shaping parliamentary representation.