2025: Cold Realism without cynicism
The last week of December is a time to reflect on the year gone by. It should not become, though, an occasion for nostalgia nor of regret for lost opportunities even if lessons have to be drawn from the latter. Cold realism, without a shred of emotion, should always be the basis for analysis which must necessarily accompany reflection. Realistic analysis should never descend to cynicism because that warps interpretation. All this applies especially to international developments.
The principal global development this year has been the disruption, if not the beginning of the demolition, of the world order put in place by the victors of the Second World War. It is ironic that it was the United States, which emerged as the global superpower after the war, and bears the major responsibility for establishing this world order and the institutions of global governance that underpin it, that is now disrupting and demolishing world order.
US President Donald Trump seems determined to pursue US interests in a manner that is undermining the rules of the present world order. This has been seen in political, diplomatic and economic spheres. His pursuit of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) programme demonstrates that he has no desire to reconcile US interests with that of other countries, even his country’s longtime allies. (China may be the exception; more on this later) The premise of the global and regional structures of this world order lies in seeking to reconcile the differing interests of countries. This includes the world’s pre-eminent power too but for Trump it is ‘my way or the highway’.
Trump’s approach was demonstrated in the brutal manner in which he treated illegal immigrants who were shackled and humiliated while being deported from the US. Global human rights principles which America preached and which seek to uphold human dignity require that the dignity of all—even convicts—be respected. Worse, in recent weeks, the US navy working under rules of engagement endorsed by Trump is blowing boats in the Caribbean Sea which are suspected to be carrying narcotics. Global maritime norms have been set aside in these actions. While narcotics is a menace to the American people there is no justification to take such action, particularly in international waters.
Trump’s actions against Iranian nuclear sites were unilateral not endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. In fact, Trump has shown almost total disdain for multilateralism which was a pillar of the world order. This is also part of his policy in not only ignoring but ridiculing the main existential crisis of our age—anthropogenic climate change because of global warming. Its evidence is present all over the world and is seen at almost all times through extreme weather events. However, Trump considers this as a hoax and has aggressively pushed the exploration and use of hydrocarbons; the US is now the world’s largest producer of these hydrocarbons. He has rejected the idea of renewable energy. And, has turned his back on global efforts to slow down climate change and help the poor and vulnerable states to adopt adaptation and mitigation strategies.
The economic and commercial aspects of Trump’s approach on trade issues are virtually dismantling the global trade order. He has weaponized the use of tariffs for political purposes. In fact, he openly says that he uses tariffs to pursue US political bilateral and multilateral objectives. He has claimed that foreign countries were commercially ripping off America by closing their markets to its exports but America was freely allowing their imports. In making this assertion Trump has not distinguished between developing and developed countries. The global trading system was based on this distinction so that trade could also become an instrument of improving the lot of poor countries. Trump’s actions have compelled all countries to seek bilateral trading arrangements to protect their interests. The problem is that in many cases there is no substitute for the American market. In all this there is a danger that the free and non-discriminatory global trading system will break down.
The main geo-political challenge is between the established world power—the US—and the rising power China. Trump has blown hot and cold on China. He has increased tariffs on Chinese goods and is continuing with US efforts to contain its regional and global influence. At the same time, he has accepted that the US and China form a G2. Thereby, he has raised China’s status to be above all other states and made it known that US and China are in a bracket which does not include any other country. It would seem from all this that he wishes to follow a mixed policy of containment and adjustment with China. This has implications for other powers that will closely monitor Sino-US relations.
All countries attempted to adjust their own policies and actions in this Trumpian world to protect their interests. In some cases, Trump was himself compelled to abandon his own bizarre ideas. One such came early this year: to clear Gaza of its people and settle them in Egypt and Jordan. Thereafter, Trump wanted to turn Gaza into the Rivera of the Mediterranean. Clearly, Trump realised that even the US with all its influence and might could not clear out a people from their homeland. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how Trump will approach the Gaza situation as and when the second part of the Peace Plan begins.
2025 will be recalled as the year in which all countries had to deal with a world being refashioned by Trump.
