2024: Political jingoism and power struggle

Democracy survives and thrives on the basis of social stability which in turn has a direct bearing on political stability. In the context of democratic values in India, the democracy gets its strength from diversity-religious, linguistic, ethnic, regional, sub-regional and even demographic. This is the pedestal on which the democratic set up has got strongly entrenched during the last seven decades of democratic polity only to emanate dangerous signals of being shaken upsides down as the year 2024 unfolds.

The political and societal stability remained to be the key contention of 2024. The diversity, of which Jammu and Kashmir has been the biggest symbol, being the only Muslim majority state of the country, became the prime target of a particular kind of politics. So, the resultant disturbances having an impact on the nation’s stability quotient.

The biggest story of 2024 was outcome of the Lok Sabha elections which did not unfold either from the Narendra Modi-led BJP’s perspective-in the light of Modi-Amit Shah’s drummed up campaign on “iss baar 400 paar”, or the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A combine's dream of unseating Mr Modi. The polity of the nation which had one strong arm in the form of a formidable Modi government with a weak opposition trying to come to terms and meet the daunting challenge posed by the saffron ideology, ended up-post 2024 Lok Sabha election outcome- with a weakened Modi-dispensation.

Although Mr Modi-after BJP being reduced to 240, failing way short of the magical majority figure of 272-managed to come to power the third successive time with the support of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief Mr Chandrababu Naidu, and Janata Dal (U) supremo and Bihar chief minister Mr Nitish Kumar. Attaining the workable majority, the BJP certainly found itself on a sticky wicket. Obviously, in keeping this union intact, crucial for the Modi government to survive, the state craft-in the form of Enforcement Directorate, CBI and Income Tax Department- came into an extra play to keep these two crucial allies under the thumb.

Even as the I.N.D.I.A combine trudged on a bouncy path all through the year struggling to remain intact and pose semblance of challenge to the numerically weakened Modi-dispensation, it did find itself in none-too-happy situation as the year folded. The electoral losses of Congress in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir (in its stronghold Jammu region) made it extra vulnerable and more susceptible to attacks, surprisingly more from its fellow travelers only to give more strength and ammunition to team-Modi to target Congress.

As the year was about to fold, the mercurial Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal chief minister fired a salvo- surprisingly not targeting arch rival BJP but Congress, the only party in the opposition camp with a pan-India presence. Interestingly, she made the grand old party’s latest electoral losses a weapon to demand I.N.D.I.A leadership for herself which she claimed was founded by her. Her suggestion was backed by others such Mr Sharad Pawar (NCP- Sharad Pawar), Mr Uddhav Thackeray (Shiv Sena- UBT), Mr Lalu Yadav (Rashtriya Janata Dal) and some other opposition grouping constituents.

On top of that, most of these parties distanced from the Congress-led tirade against Industrialist-business tycoon Mr Gautam Adani for reasons best known to them. The intention, it seemed, was to weaken Mr Rahul Gandhi’s claim to the leadership of the opposition camp on the basis of poor electoral showing and singularly targeting Mr Adani.

This situation proved handy for BJP and the team Modi merrily enjoyed the developments as these took focus and pressure away from the BJP’s weakened position and heavy reliance on alliance partners to survive at the Centre. It was advantage BJP as the world prepared to enter a New Year.

Indian polity has never been short of surprises, twists and turns particularly after a new look BJP under Mr Modi’s leadership came on the political horizon of the country. The key ingredients of the ruling dispensation’s strategy- statecraft and powerplay at any cost, remained predominant throughout the year.

So, when Home Minister Mr Amit Shah referred to founder of Indian Constitution Dr B R Ambedkar in a rather “non-serious” manner, it led to many eyebrows being raised. It also surprised political analysts, observers and people in general.

It raised a question whether Mr Shah did it as part of the statecraft to divert attention from the vulnerabilities of his party and government. Or was there a ploy behind this to further polarize the broader Hindu society vis-à-vis various caste and sub-caste groups? But to whose benefit?

The Congress-led opposition lapped it up and Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Mr Rahul Gandhi, who has made protection of Constitution as a core issue of the party’s strategy to target Mr Modi, emerged attired in a blue T-shirt, a colour signifying Dalit empowerment, in place of his customary white T-shirt, to take this battle to another level.

Not the ones to sit on the laurels the BJP’s top strategist Mr Shah, ostensibly, accepted this challenge; instead of expressing regret on his high-decibel oblique criticism of Dr Amedkar. The outcome was a meeting of the NDA allies, which he presided over, to gear up for launching a counter-offensive particularly against Congress and Mr Gandhi on this issue. It happened as the country prepared to step into the New Year.

The Dr Ambedkar-centric controversy which germinated during the course of last Parliament session of 2024, not only led to the year folding, from political perspective, on a new aggressive trail, but also set the agenda for the coming year. It has already set the agenda with fresh battle lines having been drawn between the jerky opposition and vulnerable Modi-dispensation. Obviously, it is advantage Mr Modi all the way as the situation stood at the turn of New Year.

Another event that left the year folding on yet another sour note for the opposition was related to Delhi Assembly elections due early next year. The Aam Aadmi Party (read its supremo Mr Arvind Kejriwal a perpetual Prime Ministerial chair hopeful and pursuing a parallel new brand of politics in comparison to Mr Modi), struggling to retain power made a fresh salvo hitting at Congress and declaring that AAP will have no truck with the I.N.D.I.A bloc partner.

This controversy sharpened with senior Congress leader and AICC treasurer Mr Ajay Maken launching a scathing attack against Mr Kejriwal while releasing a “chargesheet” against the AAP government. It has rendered the three-pronged electoral contest enter a new interesting phase.