2024: A Year of Transformation, Change and Challenges

As the year 2024 ends, looking backwards, one can realize it has unfolded as a period of marked turbulence, with escalating conflicts, political upheavals, and shifting power dynamics not only in South Asia but across the globe.

While the year 2024 has also witnessed elections and democratic processes in more than 70 countries across the globe, it has also been shadowed by the deepening scars of conflict, war, and the growing erosion of trust between global powers.

Conflicts in Ukraine, West Asia and Africa, coupled with rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, have raised doubts about the stability of the post-Cold War order where many times it was seen that the Israel and Palestine war might expand into other countries. At times, it did happen as several surrounding countries like Bahrain, Syria, Iran and even Jordon got affected.

However, there has been a positive side to 2024, too.  Political transitions in countries such as the leadership changes took place in countries like France, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom. In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina went into exile, while Bashar al-Assad's rule in Syria ended, marking the close of his family’s 60-year grip on power.

UK’s Labour Party victory and Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States have offered a glimmer of hope, While in India, Modi and his party and alliance won for the third straight time, increasing India’s recognition as a leading developing country. India’s economic and technological growth demonstrates economic gains and change, though tension with challenges in a polarised world exists.Now, as we approach the final days of the year 2024, the contours of the global geopolitical landscape are visible to the naked eye, shifting and moving steadily. Tense and longstanding differences between the countries have led to conflicts that have intensified between rival countries.  New political forces have begun to rise to prominence. 2024 is thus poised to be remembered not just as a year of crisis but also of transformative reflection.

The global response to these changes, however, remains divided. Some countries and people celebrate the progress made, while others lament the growing instability and division that seem to dominate the modern world order.

South Asia. In 2024, we witnessed significant transformations, both internally within its countries and in broader geopolitical relations.

India, the largest country in South Asia, continues to remain the most influential nation. The 2024 year marked the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) entering its third consecutive term under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Its foreign policy is expanding and getting stronger and recognised by world leaders that matter.

The NDA, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as lead, consolidated its power not only in the centre but also in an unexpected win in multiple states of the country like Maharashtra, Haryana where they retained power, while BJP defeated a stable regional political party in Odisha. Political observers also saw 2024 with mounting concerns over accusations of authoritarianism and the suppression of dissent by religious minorities.

Protests over issues like farmers' rights, unemployment, and the struggles of the youth and unskilled labour highlighted the growing unrest beneath India's growing economic and political surface.

Equally, some State elections in 2024 showed signs of recovery for opposition parties, particularly the Indian National Congress (INC) in Jharkhand and National Conference, in alliance with Congress, swept to victory in Jammu and Kashmir, where President's rule has been there since 2018. In 2024 Gandhi family's three members, Rahul, Sonia and Priyanka Gandhi are in the Parliament.  However, the Congress continued to struggle to present a unified vision, despite the formation of the INDI Alliance undermining its ability to mount a substantial challenge to the BJP-led NDA narrative in nearly all the states where assembly elections were held.

India Foreign Policy: As the Modi 3.0 government completes its 200 days, India’s foreign policy has been marked by a massive push to deepen global engagements, expand its diplomatic footprint, and strengthen its role in multilateral organisations.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has been at the forefront of demonstrating a clear commitment to enhancing India's stature on the world stage, expanding its wings, and reaching towards all those countries where once access was difficult or out of country’s foreign policy.

Relations with Pakistan remained tense, primarily due to unresolved issues like cross-border terrorism. In 2024, there were limited ceasefire violations along the Line of Control. Mistrust, however, continues with no trade or top diplomatic exchanges, cultural or sports activities in the respective countries not taking off even though embassies of each country continue to work.

India’s relationship with Afghanistan, however, saw some progress, with indirect trade growing despite the region's instability. The visit of top Indian bureaucrats and meetings between the ruling Taliban government and Indian officials were held a couple of times in 2024.

Sri Lanka that continues to grapple with an ongoing economic crisis, India emerged as a key partner, offering economic aid and loan, and fostering investment in critical infrastructure projects.

The Maldives in 2024 continued to walk a fine line in its foreign relations, balancing ties with both India and China. India, however, in a short span of a strained relationship with the Maldives, because of its people-to-people links, was able to stabilise the relationship between the two countries.

Bangladesh, however, saw dramatic political shifts. Following widespread protests and the resignation of then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India in August 2024. The ruling political party of Awami League that won the controversial elections in January 2004, collapsed. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus assumed leadership as Chief Adviser of an interim government, marking a dramatic turn in the nation’s political landscape and relations with India went spirally down.

Nepal continued its balancing act between India and China, navigating the economic allure of China’s Belt and Road Initiative while maintaining its long-standing strategic ties with India.

Bhutan saw a complete administrative and political shift, with the opposition winning the national elections. The King of Bhutan, who controls the country, continues fostering a relationship with India despite China's desperation to open its embassy in the capital Thimpu.

China: On the larger global stage, India found itself increasingly engaged with China, as relations, strained by border tensions in Ladakh in 2020, took a turn towards a positive dialogue in the second half of 2024.  Meetings between Prime Ministers Modi and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and a series of military-to-military meetings led to a de-escalation of troop movements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, bringing further hope for more peace and de-escalations at the LoAC that automatically increased trade between the two counties.

In 2024, the United States Indo-Pacific strategy also saw significant developments, with India playing a crucial role within the Quad, a strategic partnership comprising India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, despite India in 2024 now being seen as closer to Russia and despite US sanctions on Iran, India continues to maintain its relations and business with Iran.

In 2024, India’s relations with the Muslim world: India's strategy of strengthening its presence in West Asia amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics has proven successful, evolving from economic partnerships to comprehensive strategic engagements, especially in areas like defence, technology, and renewable energy. India since the beginning of the year 2024 has deepened its engagement with key Gulf countries with slight strategic shifts in its foreign policy.

The first-ever India-GCC Strategic Dialogue in Riyadh, co-chaired by MEA Dr Jaishankar, which focused on enhancing cooperation in energy, trade, security, and regional connectivity is seen as a key milestone.

India’s outreach extended beyond the Gulf, with diplomatic engagements with Muslim-majority nations such as Iran, Brunei, and Oman. In particular, India’s relationship with Iran centred around the Chabahar Port project, remained stable despite international tensions. Meanwhile, India’s participation in multilateral forums like I2U2, comprising India, Israel, the UAE, and the U.S., exemplified its balancing act in fostering ties with both Israel and Iran while maintaining support for Palestinian sovereignty.