2024: A year for J&K political parties to bounce back

For most political parties and their leaders in Jammu and Kashmir, 2024 is a year to bounce back and make themselves relevant again after years of irrelevance, helplessness and frustration. This is because the new year is an election year in Jammu and Kashmir.

The assembly polls as per the Supreme Court direction have to be held by September 30.  The  Parliamentary (Lok Sabha) elections are scheduled in April-May. Irrespective of whatever the political parties say before polls or whatever the elected governments do later, the elections in India continue to be a strong pillar of democracy.

Through the power of voting, the people not only elect the governments of their choice but also throw those parties and leaders out of power who do not come upto their expectations or who fail to deliver.

2024 will re-define through  polls which party or leader stands where as far as public support is concerned. The path is not that easier this time for the traditional political parties, who had ruled J&K for long in the past .

This is due to the ongoing changes since August 5, 2019 when Article 370 was abrogated and the Jammu and Kashmir bifurcated into two union territories. Besides doing their routine politics, the parties will have to  this time try to move beyond their rhetorics and come up with something  concrete that is good for the people and their interests.

People  have been facing problems and challenges at various levels in their day-to-day life and they want solutions of these problems. Most of the present voters are far more aware and conscious than those in the past and cannot be taken for granted any more.

Political gimmicks may help the political parties for sometime but what matters is their  real intentions  and what they do after getting votes. The new parties, whose most leaders were also part of some of the traditional parties in past, too are fully aware about the growing maturity among the voters and the fact that they are well informed.

Most people think that present day politics is not a good field because of the "dirty games being played by some politicians from time to time." Mostly the common  masses themselves prefer joining other professions but expect their elected rulers to be always good to them and work  for their good. While a number of leaders do come upto the expectations of people and deliver, some others disappoint them.

Political analysts believe that for getting better choices and better quality in leadership, wider participation among the people is needed in active politics. Otherwise, the choice will be always limited and there can be disappointments.

In Jammu and Kashmir, among the major political parties National Conference, Congress, PDP and BJP have been in power in past. NC and Congress have ruled for long. These parties will again try their luck in the assembly polls this year. NC, Congress and PDP feel that they been pushed to wall since 2019 through various measures with an intention to sideline them and make them totally irrelevant in J&K politics.

Now they will try to bounce back individually or collectively through the assembly polls. But can they do so and to what extent and how? This all will become clear later this year. BJP has been stating that it will form the next government on its own with its chief minister since it enjoys the support of people both in Jammu as well as in Kashmir.

Political analysts view that even if BJP gets same number of seats in Jammu as it did in 2014, the party will still need the support of several MLAs from Kashmir based parties. Almost all parties in Kashmir whether old or new will contest the polls with a stance, opposed to BJP. No party will like to be seen close to BJP during the poll time.

But what the parties do after elections is always a different story. So getting the support of MLAs from Kashmir will not be problem for BJP if it is in a position close to form the government. For getting the same seats as in 2014 in Jammu, the party will have to put Congress under check. Reports indicate that Congress has been able to make some inroads again in the stronghold of BJP for last few years.

As far as Kashmir is concerned, chances of major political parties getting a lion's share may get minimised due to wider participation of political parties in elections this year. If NC, Congress and PDP form an electoral alliance they can together consolidate their position.

Otherwise there can be division of votes and surprises also. Till recently NC Vice President Omar Abdullah was of the view that non-BJP parties can contest against each other in the constituencies where BJP has no chances of winning."

But wherever there are chances of BJP's victory, division of votes among the non- BJP parties has to be avoided," he said. PDP leader Sartaj Madni told media  persons that his party is ready for an alliance with NC in assembly polls. NC did not react to the statement.

Congress, NC and PDP may think of an alliance now in view of a latest development some days back. A news report recently  said that Apni Party President Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari and People's Conference ( PC) head Sajad Gani Lone had a one to one meeting some days back in connection with coming Lok Sabha polls.

Quoting sources, the report said the two leaders expressed a desire to  "prioritise a collective fight against a common adversary detrimental to the people of Jammu and Kashmir." " The two leaders strongly believe that the common adversary, involved in killings, unjust imprisonments, and imposing draconian laws on innocent Kashmiris, must be overcome," the news report said. According to the report Bukhari and Lone also agreed that "they owe it to the people of J&K that common enemy of people of J&K should not win by division of votes."

The media report did not say against whom the Apni Pay and People's Conference  will form the alliance (if really they formed it). The  political observers feel that it can be an alliance against NC, PDP and Congress and that the alliance will not only for parliamentary polls but later for assembly polls also.

Both Apni Party and PC have been criticising the three parties for their "deceptive politics, anti- people policies during their rule and promoting dynasty politics."  BJP among other things has been also targeting NC, PDP and Congress for dynasty politics.

Reacting to such allegation, Omar Abdullah recently said that BJP and some other parties do not want his family to lead NC or rule J&K. "We have not been our party leaders or J&K chief ministers undemocratically. Our party elects us to the party posts. Then the people vote us to power. What is undemocratic about it? This is all a democratic process and not a dynasty process," he said.

Recently, some netizens on social media had stated that the top leadership of NC and PDP is encouraging and grooming their younger dynasty members to join politics now. They in this connection referred to the presence of these youngsters in parties' offices or meetings.

Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti had last year stated that while their parties will take part in assembly polls, they themselves would not contest since J&K has been made a union territory now. NC president Dr Farooq Abdullah had asked Omar to reconsider his decision.

Political circles feel that Omar and Mehbooba cannot take a backseat and tell others including the young members of their families, having hardly any political experience, to lead from the front in the crucial assembly polls this year.

If their parties are not able to form the government or be part of the government again, they will be out for long and their political survival can become difficult with the passage of time.

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir